Russia poised to largely skirt new G7 oil price cap Repı:Refınıng - Insght HEAD TOPICS

Russia poised to largely skirt new G7 oil price cap

10/21/2022 11:25:00 AM

Russia can access enough tankers to ship most of its oil beyond the reach of a new G7 price cap underscoring the limits of the most ambitious plan yet to curb Moscow' s wartime revenue

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Russia can access enough tankers to ship most of its oil beyond the reach of a new G7 price cap, underscoring the limits of the most ambitious plan yet to curb Moscow's wartime revenue Russia can access enough tankers to ship most of its oil beyond the reach of a new G7 price cap, industry players and a U.S. official told Reuters, underscoring the limits of the most ambitious plan yet to curb Moscow's wartime revenue. RegisterAs a result, only between 1 and 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude and refined products exports could be shut in if the country refuses to abide by the cap, said the official, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation. The United States is aware of some ships changing their countries of origin and trading entities being moved beyond the G7 to order to evade the plan, the official added.Industry and policy veterans have seen the limits of a plan which at first appeared to have the entire Russian oil trade in its crosshairs but whose scope could now be greatly diminished. Read more:
Reuters » Russian President Vladimir Putin declares martial law in annexed regions of Ukraine Putin declares martial law in annexed regions of Ukraine amNewYork Putin declares martial law in annexed regions of Ukraine Five reasons why Biden must move to de-escalate the Russia-Ukraine war now

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Into America is a show about being Black in America. These stories explore what it means to hold truth to power and this country to its promises. Told by people who have the most at stake. Read more >> Russian President Vladimir Putin declares martial law in annexed regions of UkraineRussian President Vladimir Putin declared martial law Wednesday in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow annexed and given additional emergency powers to the heads of all regions of Russia. Putin declares martial law in annexed regions of Ukraine amNewYorkRussian President Vladimir Putin declared martial law Wednesday in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow annexed and gave all regional governors in Russia emergency powers that open the door for sweeping new restrictions throughout the country. Putin declares martial law in annexed regions of UkraineRussian President Vladimir Putin declared martial law Wednesday in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow illegally annexed and gave additional emergency powers to the heads of all regions of Russia. I don't know why but I think he's both a monster and a genius and he will get what he wants, if he hasn't already, and it's a bigger Russian operation than us Americans have imagined. Five reasons why Biden must move to de-escalate the Russia-Ukraine war nowOne analyst says the US and Russia have entered a high risk period of of the ongoing war in Ukraine and and says its time for President Biden to de-escalate the war before things get worse. He will not because it is all about money, power and principal, logic does not enter the equation Great, five reasons to de-escalate, not one answer as to how. One reason not to de-escalate, Ukraine is destroying our enemy. When did conservative Pubs go all out Neville Chamberlain? VoteRedToSaveAmerica2022 Ukraine's Utilities Threatened By Russia In War's New PhaseMoscow has openly declared its intention to increasingly strike power stations, waterworks and other key infrastructure. Think this may no longer be about a few “nazis” 😳 🏳️‍🌈👇🏼🏳️‍🌈 who sabotaged the pipeline? The E.U places sanctions on Iran for supplying Russia with drones.The Europ ean Union imposed a fresh round of sanctions aimed at Iran on Thursday, this time over providing drones that Russia has used to strike battlefields and civilian targets in Ukraine. Did anyone think of imposing sanctions against the EU? The heart of all problems of the world's economy? I'm all for it! Let's all sanction the source. The Group of Seven countries agreed last month to cap Russian oil sales at an enforced low price by Dec.Associated Press Oct 19, 2022 at 7:19 am Expand Russian President Vladimir Putin listens to Samara Region Governor Dmitry Azarov during their meeting in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Oct.emergency powers that open the door for sweeping new restrictions throughout the country.How the Civil War migrated to our minds and remains there to this day TRENDING:. 5 but faced consternation from main players in the global oil industry who feared the move could paralyse the trade worldwide. Months of discussions between the United States and those insurance, trading and shipping firms have mollified concerns on their exposure to sanctions but all parties now realize Russia can largely skirt the plan with their own ships and services. (Gavriil Grigorov/AP) Russian President Vladimir Putin declared martial law Wednesday in the four regions of Ukraine that Moscow annexed and given additional emergency powers to the heads of all regions of Russia. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters. The upper house of Russia’s parliament quickly endorsed Putin’s decision to impose martial in the annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions.com Register The forecasts on the resilience of the Russian oil trade and details of the discussions between Washington and the global oil and services industry have not previously been published. His decree gives law enforcement agencies three days to submit specific proposals. Estimates that 80-90% of Russian oil will continue to flow outside the cap mechanism are not unreasonable, a U. S. “Those who are on the frontlines or undergoing training at firing ranges and training centers should feel our support and know that they have our big, great country and unified people behind their back. “Those who are on the frontlines or undergoing training at firing ranges and training centers should feel our support and know that they have our big, great country and unified people behind their back. Treasury official told Reuters. As a result, only between 1 and 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude and refined products exports could be shut in if the country refuses to abide by the cap, said the official, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the situation. Draft legislation indicates it may involve restrictions on travel and public gatherings, tighter censorship and broader authority for law enforcement agencies. Russia exported over 7 million bpd in September. Putin didn’t provide details of the extra powers the heads of Russian regions will have under his decree. That could pose financial and technical difficulties for Russia but would also deprive the world of 1-2% of its global supply just as inflation is on the rise and a recession looms. “In the current situation, I consider it necessary to give additional powers to heads of all Russian regions,” he said. The United States is aware of some ships changing their countries of origin and trading entities being moved beyond the G7 to order to evade the plan, the official added. Russia would incur costs from having to conduct longer voyages and being relegated to subpar insurance and financing, the official said, making the United States optimistic Russia will be compelled to sell within the price cap over time.” Advertisement. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin’s order doesn’t anticipate the closure of Russia’s borders, state news agency RIA-Novosti reported. SHADOW FLEET Industry and policy veterans have seen the limits of a plan which at first appeared to have the entire Russian oil trade in its crosshairs but whose scope could now be greatly diminished. "In theory there is a big enough shadow fleet to continue Russian crude flows after Dec. 5," Andrea Olivi, global head of wet freight at commodities trading giant Trafigura told Reuters. The Russian leader on Wednesday also ordered the establishment of a Coordination Committee to increase interactions between government agencies in dealing with the fighting in Ukraine, which Putin continued to call a “special military operation. "A lot of these shadow vessels will be able to self-insure or they will be able to be insured by Russian P&I", he added, referring to protection and indemnity insurance. Bank JP Morgan sees the impact of the price cap as muted, with Russia almost completely skirting the ban by marshalling Chinese, Indian and its own ships - whose average age is nearly two decades old - relatively ancient by shipping standards. That could leave Russian exports in December reduced by just 600,000 bpd compared with September, the bank added. Not just ships but the services needed to keep them and their oil cargoes flowing are on the move, according to Norbert Rucker, head of economics at Swiss asset manager Julius Baer. "Oil traders dealing in Russian oil are no longer in Switzerland, Geneva or London. They are more coming out of the Middle East," Rucker told Reuters. "If you look at the Asian buyers of the oil, the ships, the insurance - this seems to be increasingly done out of Asia." SHOT IN THE FOOT? The G7 price cap plan agreed in September was shopped by the United States to industry players as a safety valve to total EU bans on Russian shipments ratified in June. P&I services heeding EU law insure 95% of the world's shipborne oil trade, meaning the EU move could have halted most of Russia's exports. That may have boomeranged back on the sanctioning countries by sending energy prices soaring amid an already deep cost of living crisis as a potential global recession looms. Insurance and shipping industry figures still saw themselves at risk of sanctions which could upend the trade even in the G7 price cap workaround. The EU ratified the price cap this month but details on implementing it remain forthcoming. The U.S. official said the policy has been tailor-made so that it is easy for firms to verify, or attest, that prices were sold below the cap. The cap, the official added, aims not be punitive toward the industry and will allow them to keep the attestations and not force them to submit it to a central registry. This would be lax enough to allow insurers to ask buyers of Russian oil to pledge in writing that sales would occur at, or below the price cap for the duration of their policy period. One industry official familiar with the matter viewed this attestation policy as "positive" and believes Washington now understands that insurers cannot enforce the policy themselves. Another said that with six weeks to go before the sanctions take effect, the insurance industry still wants more details on how the attestations would work and is concerned that EU regulations still do not mention the process or set out their obligations. Daniel Ahn, a former chief economist at the U. S. State Department, says the countries sanctioning Russia overestimated their control of the global oil trade and that changes and clarifications to their policy aimed at reducing self-harm. "All it's going to do is reroute oil ... and make life difficult for everyone else, which is what is happening right now anyway," said Ahn, a global fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. "It's going to be less damaging than a complete seaborne import ban. They shot themselves in the foot, but they're now kind of trying to bandage it a bit." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register Additional reporting by Julia Payne Editing by Marguerita Choy Our Standards: .