Abbott opens up 11-point lead over O Rourke in latest UT poll HEAD TOPICS

Abbott opens up 11-point lead over O Rourke in latest UT poll

10/22/2022 12:33:00 AM

The survey of 1 200 likely voters put the top statewide race at 54%-43% in favor of incumbent Republican Gov Greg Abbott over Democratic challenger Beto O Rourke via @texasstandard

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The survey of 1,200 likely voters put the top statewide race at 54%-43% in favor of incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. via texasstandard Immigration and border security proving to be a major motivating issue for Republicans, while Democrats’ priorities are spread among abortion, gun violence, health care and the environment. from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas may bring some unwelcome news to Democrats with the start of early voting for midterms just days away.The survey of 1,200 likely voters put the top statewide race at 54%-43% in favor of incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. The 11-point lead marked a significant widening compared with a that had Abbott up by about 5%, though that poll looked at registered voters.Jim Henson, director of the, joined the Texas Standard to discuss the implications of the poll and why party consensus on issues like immigration and border security may factor in giving Republicans an edge. Listen to the interview above or read the transcript below. Read more:
KUT Austin » Greg Abbott widens lead over Beto O’Rourke with likely voters in latest UT poll New poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott in lead with 11 points over Beto O'Rourke Texas Gov. Greg Abbott expands lead against Beto O'Rourke, according to new poll Texas Gov. Abbott, O’Rourke woo Hispanics in TV ads mostly aimed at their bases

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We're getting to know our very own Cindy Hsu a little better with a series of rapid-fire questions. Read more >> Greg Abbott widens lead over Beto O’Rourke with likely voters in latest UT pollThe 11-point margin is one of the wider advantages Abbott has registered among likely voters in a public survey yet. Abbott had a smaller 5-point advantage in the last UT poll, which was done in August, though that was among registered voters. My vote for Governor Abbott. HispanicsForAbbott TX gets the govt they deserve. New poll shows Gov. Greg Abbott in lead with 11 points over Beto O'RourkeA new poll from the UT/Texas Politics Project has Abbott in the driver seat. His lead over Democrat rival Beto O’Rourke is now at 11 points, 54% to 43%. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott expands lead against Beto O'Rourke, according to new pollAbbott holds a commanding 11 point lead despite the majority of voters saying the state is headed in the wrong direction. Texas GregAbbott BetoORourke MidtermElections2022 Midterm2022 2022Elections Texas Gov. Abbott, O’Rourke woo Hispanics in TV ads mostly aimed at their basesIn their latest television ads, Gov. Greg Abbott and challenger Beto O’Rourke are both scrambling to woo Hispanic voters as they continue trying to shore up... Better than lying like Beto and the Bidens Gov. Abbott and top GOP officials expand leads in latest poll, days before early voting beginsTexas Republicans at the top of the ticket have widened their leads over Democratic challengers into the double digits, according to a new poll released just days before early voting begins in the midterms. Morant's 34 points lead Grizzlies to OT win over KnicksJa Morant had 34 points and nine assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies beat the Knicks​ in overtime on Wednesday night in the season opener for both teams. new poll from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas may bring some unwelcome news to Democrats with the start of early voting for midterms just days away.Texas gubernatorial candidate Beto ORourke speaks to a packed auditorium during a stop on his College Tour campaign at Texas State University on Oct.Beto O’Rourke is now at 11 points, 54% to 43%.5 points in the last UT poll conducted in September. The survey of 1,200 likely voters put the top statewide race at 54%-43% in favor of incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke. (Eli Hartman For The Texas Tribune, Eli Hartman For The Texas Tribune) Gov. The 11-point lead marked a significant widening compared with a that had Abbott up by about 5%, though that poll looked at registered voters. It was then narrowed down to just under 900. Jim Henson, director of the , joined the Texas Standard to discuss the implications of the poll and why party consensus on issues like immigration and border security may factor in giving Republicans an edge. It is one of the wider advantages that Abbott has registered with likely voters in public polling. Listen to the interview above or read the transcript below. The most pressing issues among likely voters, according to the poll, are border security and immigration — an issue in which Abbott polled well. This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity: Texas Standard: Let’s talk about some of this latest polling data that your organization has generated. After Labor Day, pollsters tend to switch from registered-voter samples to likely-voter samples. That’s a pretty good estimation of where partisanship is in Texas. Where do voters stand in the gubernatorial race?  Jim Henson:  Well, among likely voters that we polled out of our overall sample and with a margin of error of about 3.3%, we have Greg Abbott having opened up an 11-point lead – 54%-43% – over Beto O’Rourke, which is, you know, on the outside of the leads that we’ve seen among likely voters, not a huge surprise. Two percent picked third-party candidates and another 2% said they supported someone else. But, as I say, probably on the outer edge of what we’ve seen today. And what some were predicting a few months ago. What do you mean on the outer edge? Well, I mean, I think that as pollsters in Texas and across the country that are working here have moved from a registered voter screen to a likely voter pool, we’ve seen this race go from what looked like a 5- to 6-point race to seeing poll results among likely voters that are in the 7%, 8%, 9% range. The Republican incumbents all had double digit leads, including Attorney General Ken Paxton who lead Democrat Rochelle Garza by 14. Gov. So I think as we get closer to the election and we get more accurate reads, we might see this race open up a little bit more. But we might also just see it stay in that range of sort of 7% to 11%. Early voting starts Monday for the Nov. Discussions of Gun Violence, intimations of a big shift on the ground. I think a lot of Democrats thought that Roe being overturned would lead to a shift in sentiment, especially in the Texas suburbs. Any take on how voters are feeling about the abortion ban in Texas and how much of an impact that’s having?  Yeah. Most likely voters have made up their minds between Abbott and O’Rourke, according to the poll, which found only 7% were somewhat or very likely to switch their preference. I mean, I think that this has been one of the major kind of subplots of this election. Fuel prices. Sign up for our. And on one hand, the polling data is pretty conclusive that the extent of the ban on abortion in Texas is outside of where the mainstream of public opinion is, even including a large share of Republicans.” “O’Rourke’s assets as a candidate were amplified by a national dynamic in 2018 that boosted Democrats,” Henson said, referring to O’Rourke’s near-miss loss against U. But we also know that you have to persuade voters – or at least Democrats need to persuade voters – that they’re going to vote on that issue. And we’re not seeing a lot of evidence of that. Sen. "And that’s going to be your Republican base here in Texas much more so than your casual Democratic voter," said Brian Smith with St Edwards University. In this latest poll, when we asked people what the most important issue to their vote was in 2022, the No. 1 response – and I don’t think you’ll be surprised by this – 32% was immigration and border security. “But the results in this poll illustrate how he’s facing a very different national environment in 2022 that’s hurting rather than helping his efforts to close the baseline Republican advantages in statewide elections. Nearly a third of Texans said that. "There isn’t as much money being thrown around, the issues are not as visible, so people are going to rely on Party identification and the candidates they know better. Only 13% said abortion. And he is especially unpopular when it comes to the issues that likely voters call most important to their vote: immigration and border security. So it’s one thing to see attitudes on abortion that are divergent with what’s going on in the state. But it’s another thing to persuade voters that that’s the most important issue that they should be basing their vote on in a very crowded issue environment. No other issue was in double digits. But Smith said that would have to be done without independent and crossover votes from moderate republicans because there are just not enough of them. » Banned, a special series from KUT:  Exploring the impact that the overturn of Roe v. Wade has had on people in Central Texas What else stands out to you in these latest numbers? Well, I mean, you know, I think we just sort of chanced upon one of them. They were equally split on abortion, with 44% saying they trust Abbott and 44% saying the same for O’Rourke. That is, just the durability of immigration and border security and the benefit that Republicans get from the consensus on that issue among Republicans – that it’s both important and that everybody is on the same page in wanting more restrictive policies. In that same item, 60% of Republicans say that immigration and border security is the most important problem to them. O’Rourke’s favorability rating remains upside down by 3 points among likely voters. Among Democrats, their top priorities are spread out among three or four different issues: Abortion, gun violence, health care, the environment. The top three Democratic issues don’t add up to the 60% that Republicans register in terms of the importance of immigration and border security. Fifty percent said they think the state is on the wrong track, while 37% picked the right track, similar to the margin in August. It just makes the task a lot harder for Democrats in terms of mobilizing their voters, and a lot easier for Republicans. We’ve been reporting on how the Secretary of State’s office is still auditing the 2020 election results in four Texas counties after pressure from former President Donald Trump. Abbott is ahead by double digits among men but only 2 points among women. According to this latest poll, how concerned are voters about the issue of voter fraud or the integrity of the elections?   Concerns about the voting system are both widespread and bipartisan. Republicans are a bit more concerned than Democrats, but at least half and as much as three quarters expect there to be serious problems in the upcoming election. Abbott has endeavored to win the Hispanic vote, though most polls have given O’Rourke the advantage with the group. The most commonly cited problem: misinformation spread on social media. If you found the reporting above valuable, please consider making a donation to support it . Comptroller Glenn Hegar is ahead of his Democratic challenger, Janet Dudding, by 12 points.