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NFL Best Bets Week 7

Bailey Zappe on tap, Matt who? All times are Eastern Standard Time Please Note: All spreads are courtesy of Caesars Hotel in Las Vegas at the time of analysis. Byes: Buffalo Bills, LA Rams, Minnesota Vikings & Philadelphia Eagle Sunday October 23rd, 2022 1:00pm Atlanta (3-3), (6-0) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (3-0) ATS @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-3), (4-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS ATL+6 LW, ATL @HOME played very well vs SF. SF has a lot of players out on injuries but ATL took full advantage of it. ATL also forced SF QB Jimmy G to throw 2INTS which stopped SF drives. However, ATL did recover a SF fumble and returned it back for a touchdown and a temporary 14-0 lead. ATL eventually won the game 28-14 and were never in danger of losing as the ATL DEF kept the pressure on the SF OFF. The ATL DEF gave up 0pts in the 2nd half. ATL quarterback Marcus Mariota continues to do a decent job in keeping his team with a fighting chance in every game. The rushing game for ATL combined for 168yds and 1td vs SF and will continue to use other players until RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson comes back. But the ATL OFF has stepped up when needed. LW, CINNCY QB Joe Burrow was making a return visit to the state and field where he won his national championship with LSU. Burrow didn’t disappoint as CINNCY won 30-26. Burrow had a fine game throwing 28/37, 300yds, 3TDSs, 0INTS & 0turnvers. However, the CINNCY running game continues to go nowhere and three different rushers racked up a total of 75yds. CINNCY #27 RUSH OFF needs to step it up. CINNCY can’t only rely on Burrow’s arm to win games. Burrow was sacked 3x vs NO which brings his season total to 21. That is a lot of pounding and the O-LINE and he needs to do a better job. CINNCY WR JaMarr Chase continues to be Joe’s favorite target as he turned a 15 pass play into a 60yard td. Chase is an explosive player that many teams can’t cover. After taking the lead 30-26 with 1:57 to play, the CINNCY DEF stopped NO on the ensuing drive and that was the game. L4 CINNCY vs ATL, 2-2 SUATS. CINNCY 23-35-3 ATS @HOME in OCT. CINNCY 22-30-1 ATS as a FAV in OCT. CINNCY 20-6 ATS off non-conf gm vs non-div opp. CINNCY 11-2 ATS as a non-div FAV off non-conf gm. CINNCY 11-1 ATS as a div FAV 3>pts off non-conf gm. CINNCY 6-15-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win. CINNCY 4-6-1 ATS as a non-conf FAV >1pt. CINNCY 4-6-1 ATS L11 off BB SU wins. ATL 38-33 ATS as a DOG in OCT. ATL 32-24 ATS AWAY in OCT. ATL 13-7 ATS off SU DOG win vs non-div opp. ATL 9-2 ATS AWAY off SU non-div win vs non-div opp. ATL 10-5 ATS as a DOG off SU DOG win. ATL 10-6 ATS as a DOG >1pt off SU DOG win. ATL has been using different RBs as well as Mariota in their run game to keep opposing teams guessing. It has been working because they then can complement them with a sprinkle of passes to different receivers. ATL #3 RUSH OFF vs CINNCY #21 RUSH DEF is the matchup here as ATL will keep going with their version of “ground and pound”. CINNCY keeps finding themselves in tight games. In four of CINNCY’s six games, the margin of victory (whether win or lose for CINNCY) has been 3, 3, 2 & 4pts. In their other games, it was 15 and 12pts. This is another one of those games where CINNCY faces a team that fights to the end. Does CINNCY win the game and cover the spread? I think they win the game but not by more than 6pts. ATL will play tough and the game will be a 3pts game with ATL maybe winning or falling short at the end. I don’t see CINNCY getting a blowout win here. ATL has been playing well considering no one gave them a chance to even get to four wins this season. They are making the best of a situation and giving opposing teams headaches. If CINNCY gets out to a big lead, ATL will surely get the back door cover. Take the points here. ATL INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS) LS Beau Brinkley (Achilles) Out, ILB Mykal Walker (Groin) Questionable, RB Damien Williams (Ribs) Out, WR Calvin Ridley (Suspended) Out, CB A.J. Terrell (Thigh) Questionable, CB Isaiah Oliver (Shoulder) Probable, CB Casey Hayward (Shoulder) Out, CB Dee Alford (Hamstring) Questionable, OL Jalen Mayfield (Back) Out, WR Jared Bernhardt (Groin) Questionable, RB Cordarrelle Patterson (Knee) Out, TE John FitzPatrick (Undisclosed) Out, DL Marlon Davidson (Knee) Out, OLB Adetokunbo Ogundeji (Shoulder) Questionable, DL Ta'Quon Graham (Knee) Questionable, DT Vincent Taylor (Achilles) Out. CINNCY INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS) WR Ja'Marr Chase (Hip) Questionable, S Tycen Anderson (Hamstring) Out, RB Elijah Holyfield (Knee) Out, S Brandon Wilson (Knee (ACL)) Out, LS Clark Harris (Biceps) Out, LB Joe Bachie (Knee) Questionable, LB Markus Bailey (Shoulder) Questionable, LB Logan Wilson (Shoulder) Questionable, C Ben Brown (Bicep) Out, DT Josh Tupou (Calf) Out, OT Isaiah Prince (Elbow) Out, WR Tee Higgins (Ankle) Questionable, TE Hayden Hurst (Groin) Questionable, TE Drew Sample (Knee) Out, DE Jeff Gunter (Knee) Questionable, DT DJ Reader (Knee) Out. THE PICK: ATL+6 Sunday October 23rd, 2022 1:00pm Detroit Lions (1-4), (3-2) ATS, (0-2) AWAY, (1-1) ATS, @ Dallas Cowboys (4-2), (4-2) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS DET+7 LW, DAL was @PHILLY on SNF. I honestly thought that DAL would give PHILLY trouble and win the game outright. But after a 0-0 1st quarter, PHILLY exploded for a 20-0 lead in the 2nd quarter and never looked back. DAL fought back as much as they could but, PHILLY added a td in the 4th qtr and PHILLY won 26-17. DAL couldn’t stop a run heavy OFF by PHILLY but were able to sack PHILLY QB Jalen Hurts 4x. The DAL DEF couldn’t muster any turnovers to give the OFF extra chances. DAL QB Cooper Rush had his worst game as a starter throwing 18/38 181 yds, 1td & 3INTS. Two of Rush’s INTS led to 10pts for PHILLY. DET is coming off a bye and before that they lost horribly @NE, 29-0. In that game, DET QB Jared Goff couldn’t get comfortable and the DET OFF had an INT and a fumble that resulted in 10pts for NE in the 2nd qtr. Top it off with the NE rushing game which ran all over the DET DEF for 176yds. With their back against the wall in the 2nd half and trailing19-0, DET turned the ball over on downs 4x in the 2nd half without seeing the endzone. L10 DET vs DAL, DAL 7-3 SU & 6-4 ATS. DET 10-5 ATS since 2007 after their bye. DET 34-26 ATS AWAY in OCT. DET 40-34 ATS as a DOG in OCT. DET 8-5-1 ATS w/rest. DAL 10-8 ATS in 1st of BB HGs. DAL 35-26 ATS @HOME in OCT. DAL 44-35 ATS as a FAV in OCT. DAL 6-25-1 ATS @HOME after an SU conf loss. DAL 2-21 ATS as a HOME FAV after a conf loss. DAL 1-8 ATS as a HOME FAV off an SU loss. DAL 0-9 ATS as a HF 12pts. NYJ 1-11 ATS w/revenge off SU DOG win vs opp off SU loss. This is a revenge game for NYJ for the whooping that DEN put on the NYJ @DEN in wk 3 in 2021. In that game, NYJ QB Zach Wilson had a terrible game going 19/35, 160 yds, 0tds, 2INTS. He was also sacked 5x. NYJ rushed for a combined 43 yds and were down 17-0 at halftime. DEN QB Teddy Bridgewater led the OFF For DEN then but he’s long gone. NYJ HC Robert Saleh should remind his team of that game all week to get pumped up. Right now, DEN HC Nathaniel Hackett is in way over his head and is making the DEN OFF look pathetic. They look lost and if they complete a pass, it looks almost lucky. The only thing keeping DEN in games is their DEF. DEN #3 TOT DEF w/#13 RUSH DEF & #5 PASS DEF. In three of DEN’s four losses, they have lost the games 1, 3 and 3pts. The other game vs LV was a shootout where they lost by 9pts. DEN is inches from being 5-1 instead of 2-4. Saleh better not get too giddy for this game and needs to bring out some trick plays to keep the DEN DEF guessing. DEN’s OFF may be a mess but their DC Ejiro Evero is making sure that DEN is in striking range if they ever get their OFF in sync. Take note: In 2022, DEN as a FAV, 0-3 ATS. This could be a close game due to DEN’s DEF. But, take the points here as NYJ get their revenge. NYJ INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS) OT Greg Senat (Undisclosed) Out, OT Mekhi Becton (Kneecap) Out, FB Nick Bawden (Undisclosed) Out, DE Jermaine Johnson (Ankle) Questionable, OL Max Mitchell (Knee) Out, OT George Fant (Knee) Out. DEN INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS) RB Damarea Crockett (ACL) Out, QB Russell Wilson (Hamstring) Questionable, OLB Randy Gregory (Knee) Out, WR Tyrie Cleveland (Shoulder) Questionable, CB K'Waun Williams (Wrist/Elbow) Questionable, CB Ronald Darby (ACL) Out, CB Damarri Mathis (Knee) Questionable, S Caden Sterns (Hip) Questionable, RB Javonte Williams (Knee) Out, CB Essang Bassey (Hamstring) Questionable, OLB Christopher Allen (Foot) Out, LS Jacob Bobenmoyer (Hand) Out, ILB Josey Jewell (Knee) Questionable, OL Billy Turner (Knee) Questionable, OL Tom Compton (Back) Out, OT Garett Bolles (Leg) Out, G Quinn Meinerz (Foot) Questionable, WR Tim Patrick (ACL) Out, TE Eric Saubert (Thigh) Probable, OLB Aaron Patrick (Knee (ACL)) Out, DT D.J. Jones (Ankle) Questionable. THE PICK: NYJ+3 Sunday October 23rd, 2022 8:20pm Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4), (2-4) ATS, (1-2) AWAY, (1-2) ATS @ Miami Dolphins (3-3), (3-3) ATS, (2-1) HOME, (2-1) ATS PITT+7 LW, MIA QB Skyler Thompson was starting @HOME vs MINN. He injured his hand and in came Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was a little rusty and he was sacked 5x, threw 2INTS but threw 2tds. MIA was in this game but gave up a 53yds run late to MINN RB Dalvin Cook, who gave MINN a nice cushion at 24-10, late in the 4th qtr. MIA scored a td later and the final was MINN 24-16. The MIA DEF stopped the running game except for the long run by Cook. The MIA O-LINE gave up a total of six sacks. Two miscues by MIA led to 10pts for MINN. This was the biggest difference in the game. LW, TB was a heavy FAV-8 @PITT. The DEF for PITT held TB to 4fgs and 1td late in the game. TB went for a tying 2pt conversion but it failed and PITT walked away with the win, 20-18. PITT QB Kenny Picket led PITT to their 1st td but was knocked out of the game with a concussion. Mitch Trubisky came in and threw a td in the 4th qtr to make the score PITT 20-12. Trubisky kept it simple and went 9/12, 144yds, 1tds but more importantly, 0turnovers. The rushing game for PITT managed 77yds on 29 touches. PITT needs to get their running game going to take the pressure off of whoever the quarterback is. But the DEF for PITT may be starting to come together. L8 PITT vs MIA, MIA 2-6 SU but 5-3 ATS. MIA 6-4-1 ATS off an SU loss & playing on SNF. MIA 9-8 ATS as a FAV n SNF. MIA 9-6-1 ATS 1NL in 2nd of BB HGs. MIA 29-32 ATS @HOME in OCT. MIA 27-28 ATS as a FAV in OCT. MIA 4-12 ATS @HOME vs <500 opp off SU win. PITT 7-11 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. PITT 28-12-1 ATS as a DOG in OCT. PITT 35-25 ATS AWAY in OCT. PITT 17-22-1 ATS L40 vs AFC EAST. PITT 14-23 ATS AWAY vs non-div conf opp. PITT 10-21-1 ATS off SU win vs opp off SU loss. There’s a game within this game that most people are probably not aware of. PITT Senior Defensive Assistant/Linebackers coach is Brian Flores. He was the HC of MIA for three seasons (2019-2021). He was then fired. Do you think he wants to give it to MIA in their home stadium? The DEF surely wants to play well and stick it to MIA. MIA is coming off a three-game losing streak with injuries to their quarterbacks which altered their season so far. They would like to get back on the winning trail. PITT had their quarterback of the future go down with a concussion LW and Trubisky might be the starter here. PITT is coming off a nice win @HOME vs TB. TB has their own problems but PITT made the plays that needed to be made to stop TB cold. Can they do it again @MIA? Tua Tagovailoa is slated to start this game but, he may be a little rusty coming back from his injuries. Usually a first game back comes with turnovers and that is what I am counting on here. LW, Bridgewater was rusty and it helped MINN seal a win. MIA #11 RUSH DEF vs PITT #28 RUSH OFF. If Trubisky starts for PITT he will have to shoulder the load vs MIA because the run game for PITT is so weak. He better play carefully and the game plan for him has to be simple. However, I don’t see a blowout here as PITT will keep it close and the game could be decided by 3 or 4pts. Take PITT and the points here. PITT INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS) RB Jeremy McNichols (Shoulder) Out, DB Carlins Platel (Undisclosed) Out, QB Kenny Pickett (Concussion) Questionable, WR Anthony Miller (Shoulder) Out, WR Calvin Austin III (Foot) Questionable, CB Cameron Sutton (Hamstring) Questionable, S Damontae Kazee (Wrist/Arm) Out, CB Ahkello Witherspoon (Hamstring) Questionable, CB Levi Wallace (Head) Questionable, S Karl Joseph (Ankle/Foot) Out, S Minkah Fitzpatrick (Knee) Questionable, LB Hamilcar Rashed Jr. (Undisclosed) Out, WR Steven Sims (Hamstring) Questionable, TE Pat Freiermuth (Concussion) Questionable, LB T.J. Watt (Pectoral) Out, DE DeMarvin Leal (Knee) Out. MIA INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS) TE Adam Shaheen (Knee) Out, CB Trill Williams (Knee (ACL)) Out, QB Tua Tagovailoa (Concussion) Questionable, QB Skylar Thompson (Thumb) Questionable, CB Byron Jones (Achilles) Out, DB Keion Crossen (Knee) Questionable, CB Kader Kohou (Oblique) Questionable, FB John Lovett (Knee) Out, OT Terron Armstead (Toe) Questionable, OL Austin Jackson (Ankle) Questionable, TE Durham Smythe (Hamstring) Questionable, TE Cethan Carter (Concussion) Out, DE Emmanuel Ogbah (Back) Questionable, LB Trey Flowers (Foot) Questionable, LB Porter Gustin (Undisclosed) Out. THE PICK: PITT+7 Monday October 24th, 2022 8:15pm Chicago Bears (2-4), (1-4-1) ATS, (0-3) AWAY, (0-2-1) ATS @ NE Patriots (3-3), (4-2) ATS, (1-1) HOME, (1-1) ATS CHI+7 ½ LW, NE was @CLEV. I have liked NE quarterback Bailey Zappe since he came in for Brian Hoyer @GB in wk 4. So far in 2 starts Bailey is 2-0. Right now you stay with him even if quarterback Mac Jones is 100%. Don’t think that NE HC Bill Belichick is not thinking the same thing. Hello, Tom Brady & Drew Bledsoe scenario. Zappe had a nice game @CLEV 24/34, 309yds, 2tds, 0INTS but did have a lost fumble which fortunately, was not consequential for NE. NE took a 10-3 lead on CLEV and never looked back. NE won 38-15. The strong playing of RB Rhamondre Stevenson with 19 carries for 76 yards and 1td takes a lot of pressure off of Zappe. The DEF for NE also made it happen in this game getting 2INTS and 2 lost fumbles from CLEV. LW, on TNF, CHI was @HOME vs WASH. This was basically a PICK’EM game because both teams have played rather poorly. In this game, CHI had multiple opportunities to score tds but found ways not to score. At the end of the game, with WASH leading 12-7, CHI had a 1st & goal at the WASH 5yd line and had a chance to get a winning td. CHI had 4 chances but, could not get into the endzone. The final score, WASH 12-7. CHI rushed for a combined 238yds with QB Justin Fields rushing for 88yds but it wasn’t enough. This was another sloppy game by two teams going nowhere. L4 NE vs CHI, NE 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS. NE 8-6-2 ATS on MNF. NE 7-4 ATS as a HOME FAV on MNF. NE 38-31-1 ATS @HOME in OCT. NE 51-36-2 ATS as a FAV in OCT. NE 34-16-3 ATS L53 (H) vs non-div. NE 15-3 SU & 13-4-1 ATS vs NFC NORTH. NE 18-4 ATS off SU non-div DOG win. NE 21-14-3 ATS as a HF 7>pts. NE 19-3 ATS off SU win vs non-div opp off SU loss. NE 18-4 ATS off non-div gm vs opp off SU loss 4>pts. NE 14-1 ATS off non-div gm vs <500opp off SU loss 4>pts. CHI 13-13 ATS as a ROAD DOG on MNF. CHI 12-5 ATS in 1st of BB RGs. CHI 35-27-2 ATS as a DOG in OCT. CHI 31-28-2 ATS AWAY in OCT. CHI 13-8 ATS L21 non-conf ROAD gms. CHI 4-8 ATS w/rest off SU loss. CHI 8-3 ATS vs opp off SU DOG win. NE HC Bill Belichick has put together very good game plans against inexperienced QBs and won. This is one of those games. NE #13 TOT DEF vs CHI #28 TOT OFF. Justin Fields is going to be overwhelmed and made sure that he will not be able to run. He will be forced to sit in the pocket and then he will make mistakes. This is what Belichick does against inexperienced quarterbacks. He takes away your strengths and makes you rely on your weaknesses. CHI will try to use the run, CHI #2 RUSH OFF vs NE #17 RUSH DEF. It won’t work because NE & Belichick have been there before. Just ask Mahomes of KC. For the NE OFF, it has been made simple for Zappe but, he is doing the job and learning more as he starts more games. But, as he continues to flourish, will Mac Jones have a job when he is 100% and able to return? Anyway, lay the points here as NE rolls. CHI INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS) OL Dakota Dozier (Leg/Knee) Out, QB Justin Fields (Shoulder) Questionable, WR Byron Pringle (Calf) Out, LB Matt Adams (Calf) Out, OL Cody Whitehair (Knee) Out, OL Doug Kramer (Foot) Out, OL Alex Leatherwood (Undisclosed) Questionable. NE INJURY REPORT (POS, PLAYER, STATUS) WR Kristian Wilkerson (Concussion) Out, K Quinn Nordin (Undisclosed) Out, QB Brian Hoyer (Head) Out, QB Mac Jones (Ankle) Questionable, WR Ty Montgomery (Ankle) Out, WR Nelson Agholor (Hamstring) Questionable, SS Cody Davis (Knee) Out, CB Jonathan Jones (Ankle) Questionable, CB Joejuan Williams (Shoulder) Out, RB Damien Harris (Hamstring) Questionable, LB Ronnie Perkins (Undisclosed) Out, LB Josh Uche (Hamstring) Questionable, OL Andrew Stueber (Hamstring) Out, OL Yodny Cajuste (Thumb) Out, WR Kendrick Bourne (Toe) Questionable, DL Christian Barmore (Knee) Questionable, DL Lawrence Guy Sr. (Shoulder) Questionable. THE PICK: NE-7 ½ BEST BET OF THE FIVE GAMES: NE-7 ½ on MNF EXCLUSIVE: Poll : 0 votes Quick Links More from Sportskeeda Thank You! More from Sportskeeda Fetching more content... No thanks Delete Cancel Update Reply ❮ ❯ Be the first one to comment on this story Best Offers 1 Logout No Results Found