Week 2 Open Discussion Thread Football Outsiders

September 16, 2005, 3:01 pm ET Are the Giants for real? Will San Diego fall to 0-2? Big Ben and McNabb on ice? Let's talk... This thread is for discussion of action on the field before, during, and after Sunday's games. You can talk about who you think will win or lose before the games start and last-minute news on Sunday morning. Then during the games, discuss strange plays, great performances, and stupid announcers (of which there are plenty). After the day is done, we'll discuss the results of the week Sunday night and Monday before our weekly commentary articles appear. Please ask your fantasy football start/bench and waiver wire questions in the discussion thread for Scramble for the Ball.

Comments

601 comments, Last at 27 Sep 2005, 3:06am With NE playing Carolina this week does anybody remember the last nfc team to beat the patiots? Give Up. The Washington Redskins coached by Steve Spurrier. Go Figure Since there's nothing more helpful or entertaining than anonymous picks from an unknown source, I'm posting my two picks of the week: PATRIOTS -3 at Carolina. Expecting Dillon to be highly motivated off lackluster Week 1, and think he'll go berserk against Jenkins-less front four. I actually think this will be a blowout - and no, I'm not a Pats fan - and Carolina's season will be thrown into early crisis mode. LIONS -1.5 at Chicago. No offense looked worse to me than the Bears in Week 1. Lions defense is better than I thought, and whatever you may think of Harrington, I think Detroit has an impressive collection of weapons. Bears won't be able to account for all of them. Not to make too much out of that first post, but Steve Spurrier's stint as the Redskins coach is looking less and less like an embarrassing aberration as time goes by, huh? Joe Gibbs pulling the ol' QB switcheroo ten minutes into the season looked as amateurish as his predecessor. There was a pretty scathing article in the local paper this week pointing out how 3 of the 4 "core Redskins" that Gibbs talked up last season are playing for different teams this season, and the one that's still in DC thinks the franchise ripped him off of $6.5MM. That a team with Joey Harrington at QB, can be considered a legit contender for a division title, pretty much says all that needs to be said about how thoroughly the NFC sucks. First FF question: Who would you start this week: QB: K. Collins or C. Palmer? RB: Edge James or B. Westbrook? WR: L. Coles, Mi. Clayton, or Roy Williams? Argh. Wrong thread. Sorry, guys. Am I crazy in thinking that Cleveland is going to beat Green Bay and Chicago is going to beat Detroit? I figure the worst them in the AFC is still better than one of the worst teams in the NFC, and the Lions and Bears are about even, but the Bears will get a homefield boost. The Bears offense looked bad last week, but that's because the Redskins defense is really good. Nah, neither of them would surprise me. Cleveland's not the worst team in the AFC, though. Tennessee is - at least after that performance last week. B, I dunno what to think about those games. When do you bail on convention (GB SHOULD beat the Browns, right??), and how do you pick between bottom feeders (if that's what they still are)? I dunno myself. My gut says that GB will pull it out at home versus the Browns. After all, we don't really know quite how bad GB is just yet after only one game. I'm also going with Detriot, just because they seem to have more weapons on offence than Chicago. Harrington may not be a world-beater, but Orton has a LOT to learn as a rookie. Personally I'm pulling for both of them to step up, but I don't expect as much from Orton just yet. The Padres are winning a division in baseball, why not the Lions? What about Minnesota? The Vikings lost one game, why is everyone writing them off already? What about Atlanta at Seattle? After last week I learned a new rule, never pick against an NFC West team at home, and already the rule is being tested. I'm seeing some mixed results for Lions/Bears predictions. Most people who are picking the Bears are generally saying that the team really is decent and should break even this year. I think the if Joey Harrington avoids picks and KJ can run then the Lions have a good shot at this game. The key though is the Bears running versus the Detroit line. The Bears could not run against Washington and much of that is certainly due to the Redskins having a great defense but I wonder if a little more Benson or a more confident Orton can get get them more yards. I know I wouldn't want to bet on that game. The Lions beat a bad team and the Bears stuck with a not very good team not exactly true indicators of their future success. BTW, I just have to say that every pundit who's been saying that Portis gashed the Bears is completely off-base. He was largely ineffective going 20-80 plus a 40 yard run that got them past midfield but not into scoring range and they didn't even get points on the drive. As the unapologetic Giants fan here, I'll answer in the affirmative. As I tried to convince folks preseason, our off-season moves greatly improved the team. The biggest difference is going to be Brandon Jacobs. Over the past few years, our third and short percentage was absolutely abominable. Having a capable short yardage back makes a huge difference. It is not just that he will gain a yard or three that Dayne or Cloud did not, it is that those drives will then continue-- and with them the additional yardage that will accrue on subsequent plays, the added wear on the opposing defenses, the additional rest our defense gets, the change in field position, and the additional points coming as a direct result of those continuing drives. Him gaining 20 yards in a game could mean an extra 100 for our offense. The second big impact is in our secondary. Webster is a ballhawk, and his use will increase as the year goes on. We seem to have improved our run defense. Plaxico is, at a minimum, a marked improvement over Hilliard. With just those changes listed there, we were bound to be much better than last year's team, while having a comparatively easier schedule. How real we are will depend on if Manning progresses, regresses, or stays the same. If he stagnates, we'll be in the hunt for a wildcard. If he improves, we could be in the hunt for more. Or, if he falls apart and we are stuck with the wrong Hasselback, then we could end up where we were last year. But I doubt that will happen. Instead of creating complicated statistics that only like 0.3 percent of the human population can understand, I wish the Football Outsider guys would research stuff like "Effectiveness of shaky quarterbacks in the weeks and months after a T.I.B. (traumatic injury booing)." - Bill Simmons latest col. heh. BTW, I just have to say that every pundit whoâ€s been saying that Portis gashed the Bears is completely off-base. He was largely ineffective going 20-80 plus a 40 yard run that got them past midfield but not into scoring range and they didnâ€t even get points on the drive. Mac, your post exactly matched my take on Portis's day against da Bears. The stats look good at the end of the day, but they don't tell the story that the gametape does. Portis was unimpressive in the first half. When he ran up the middle he would put both arms around the ball and sort of slow down. It's like he was waiting to get tackled instead of looking for a way to break out of traffic. He was hardly a factor in the game until he broke that long run on a stretch play (naturally) in the second half. And on that play he was just running through a big hole, not creating anything on his own. If Gibbs really takes the Broncos stretch play to heart and the Skins OLine proves it can play that style of ball, then Portis might have a good year. But there was nothing in that first game to make me think he's gonna be a real force. I'm hoping the Bears just got tired in the second half. If that's the case, and if we can actually, you know, 30 minutes time of possession (that's a huge "if"), the Bears may be able to win a few games this year. re:10
The Padres winning a division in baseball huh? That wouldn't perchance be the division where every team is under 500, would it? Alright, I'll give the Lions the NFC north with a 7-9 record. Have to disagree completely with mactbone & Fiver. I'm a Bears fan, and I agree with the "pundits" that Portis (and Betts, when he was in) gashed the Bears good. First of all, from the preseason play and all the talk out of the locker room, I would think the Bears D would have been mad as hell to have given up 20 carries for 80 yards, and then you throw a 40 on top of it. And the 40 was absolutely huge, because it came on the first play of a series that started inside the Redskins 5. If the Bears hold there, the ill-fated 3-false-start drive starts at the Washington 40, not the Bears 21. Similarly, on the Skins winning FG drive, Portis had runs of 9 and 12 yards, and Betts added one for 10. So I contend that if the Bears run D played as advertised on either of those two drives, they probably would have won the game. Let's hope they pick it up against Detriot, 'cause KJ torched them last year. I realize as a Bears fan I have a biased view, but I thought the game on Sunday showed promise at the least. I realize Orton is a rookie, but I think he shows more poise and promise than any other quarterback on the roster in the past decade or so. Ok, so he won't bring in big numbers this year, but if the offensive line stays healthy and gels (I know, HUGE if) and Cedric Benson even begins to live up to his billing this season we could stay in it all year. Probably not playoff bound, but if we can pull off 8-8 that should be good enough for a minimum of 2nd place in the NFC North. As for Sunday's game, yeah, Joey Harrington didn't make many mistakes, but have you taken a look at the Packer's defense lately? I live in Wisconsin and hear Packer news constantly, but the best anyone can say about the secondary is that there are "young players with promise." The Packs linebackers are horrible. Barnett has decent skills but not the awareness to go with them and he's the best LB. The pass rush is pitiful with Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila the only realistic threat. I think with Brown, Harris, and Ogunleye putting some consistent pressure the old Joey that we all know and love will return. I still think it will be a close game, but it's one the Bears should win. Re #1, In the past two years, only four coaches and four QB's have beaten the Patriots. Three of those coaches are no longer head coaches in the NFL, and three of the four QB's lost their starting job in the past offseason or last week. Makes you scratch your head, doesn't it... The Bears don't have to account for all of detroit's weapons, just account for harrington..Harrass him and the offense will crumble.. That said, the bears offense is bad, this is anyone's game, i like the Bears at home.. Re: #14 Off the top of my head, I can't think of too many QB injury cheers, other than a few for Tim Couch when he got hurt in week 17 against Atlanta in 2002. He never really recovered from that, but then again, what was he recovering to? He was slightly above average in 02, and with the controversy that wouldn't go away in 03 it's not surprising he went downhill. Come to think of it, how would we measure such a thing? Are there any good QBs who draw hometown cheers when they get hurt? For the home fans to cheer, either a) the QB flat-out sucks, or b) he's decent at best, but the backup is a fan favorite. In choice a, it's not like he's good to begin with (I mean, if people are actually cheering for the Anthony Wright experience, yeesh), so what do you expect when he comes back? In choice b, unless the backup totally tanks, his career in that city is effectively over anyway. It's not like San Fran fans were cheering when Young went down, or NE fans cheered when Bledsoe did (although 99% of them now will claim they knew all along that he was holding them back, and that Brady would be just super). The closest to a success story I can think of offhand is not an injury, but a draft booing - McNabb. Other than that... So if someone has any they can think of, please let me know. In fact, email them to me at yermom42 at yahoo.com, and I'll see about putting together a guest article if it's interesting enough. You all know you want more of my ramblings on this site, right? RE: Portis and the Bears The problem with the Bears run defense is that we allowed Washington to run the ball, hence the TOP was bad. Its not the only cause, but I don't think Washington had 1 Three-and-out all game.
Portis and his 121 yards rushing were just an effect of a bad game by the run defense. B (#11) - stick with your rule. I really think that western teams playing at 10 AM their time with trips far away to humid places like Miami and Jacksonville will struggle. So, I don't think you should read too much into the Seahawks loss from last week. OTOH, I don't think there is as much disadvantage for eastern teams playing at 4 PM their time in places with moderate weather early in the season. Re: Portis He was moving the chains when it mattered in the second half last week. And the 40 yard run came when the Skins were pinned at the 6. The only time he was held to short gains was inside the Bears 10. Here are his second half runs: 2-10-WAS48 (9:23) C.Portis left guard to CHI 43 for 9 yards 1-10-CHI42 (7:45) C.Portis left guard to CHI 30 for 12 yards 1-8-CHI8 (5:06) C.Portis right guard to CHI 5 for 3 yards 2-5-CHI5 (4:26) C.Portis right guard to CHI 3 for 2 yards 1-10-WAS6 (:06) C.Portis right tackle to WAS 47 for 41 yards 1-10-WAS23 (5:42) C.Portis right tackle to WAS 27 for 4 yards 1-10-WAS43 (3:37) C.Portis right guard to WAS 49 for 6 yards 2-4-WAS49 (2:53) C.Portis right tackle to CHI 43 for 8 yards What about Atlanta at Seattle? ATL was a 2 point conversion from winning there last year, and that's with them resting starters for most of the game. Vick always has potential to fumble and INT away the game, but I have a hard time believing Seattle beats an improved Atlanta defense. Regarding Simmons' article (which I completely agree with BTW), I am somewhat disturbed that my picks for the week are the opposite of his. Every team he picked I have bet against. I am not sure if that is worrisome or not. Speaking of rules, it's a good thing it's still warm this time of year. There are a number of dome teams traveling to play teams that really aren't that good. If this were week 10, I'd take Chicago and the points in a heartbeat. Harrington didn't look so good in the second half against Green Bay. At one point in the first half, he was 9 for 12. Detroit's run defense was tolerable last year; I think if they can key on the run, they'll keep Chicago in single digits. I have to agree with Barry, that counter to what some might think, it will be easier to beat Detroit by pressuring the passing game than by stacking the line against Jones, even if you get a three-and-oh-no-here-comes-Nick-Harris. Joey hasn't made costly mistakes yet, but we know they're out there ... Lions - 1.5 against the Bears - I wouldn't touch that game with a 10 foot poll. Yes, there aren't many offenses as bad as the Bears, but the Bears D is pretty good and will win them games - and Joey Harrington is the type of QB who can give them one. re # 20.
The best swordsman in the world doesn't fear the second best swordsman because he knows what he is going to do. It's the damned flailing amateur that scares him.
Belichick probably couldn't get inside their heads the way he does with good coaches. Alright, I googled the article (“Effectiveness of shaky quarterbacks in the weeks and months after a T.I.B. (traumatic injury booing).â€? - Bill Simmons) on ESPN's site and the net and I looked in the latest issue of ESPN the Mag (it just came today) and it's not there, where is the article? Iâ€m seeing some mixed results for Lions/Bears predictions. Most people who are picking the Bears are generally saying that the team really is decent and should break even this year yet more evidence that crystal myth is a huge nation wide problem I'm basing my Bears pick on good defense beats good offense, espicially early in the year. Also the first few weeks is the time when weird special teams plays change games, and the Bears are experts in that. The story with "Traumatic Injury Booing" is linked on my pseudonym. Re 20 and 30
What does that say about the one QB and coach still in the NFL (same team: Roethlisberger and Cowher)
Well Roethlisberger was definitely an amateur last year, but it really wasn't him who beat the Patriots. The Patriots got revenge in the playoffs, which I think reveals more about the coach, who is a fairly solid coach in the regular season, but has had trouble in the playoffs.
I personally think that this all bodes well for the Steelers regular season match-up with NE, but if the two meet in the playoffs, NE will likely own Pittsburgh like they have owned the Colts. Also the first few weeks is the time when weird special teams plays change games, and the Bears are experts in that. Yeah, they're particularly expert at being on the wrong end of those plays. Don't forget, they were solidly in command of last year's opener against the Lions until Terence Metcalf got blown up by Shaun Rogers on a field goal attempt, which Bracey Walker returned for a TD. And in 2002, they were up 20-0 on the Saints (and ready to go 3-0 and prove all the people wrong who said 2001 was a fluke), when Leon Johnson lost a kickoff in the sun that bounced off his facemask, and the whole season fell apart. I got more if you want 'em. If Pittsburg wins this week, A victory against NE will be thier 17th regualr season victory in a row, one less than than the record held by New England. A streak that was broken by Pittsburg last year. I think New England will use that as motivation. From the Traumatic Injury Booing article (see #34): "Three reasons why the Patriots will not repeat: 1) Coors Lite commercial; 2) Diet Pepsi commercial; 3) Visa commercial." Amen. Speaking of weather advantages. i'm taking the Buccaneers this week because the Bills will be traveling to play a nooner in Tampa (it's still technically summer). Perhaps it's not the same as cold weather advantages, but I imagine the heat was also worse on the Broncos than Miami last week. Here are my picks for week 2, just winners: NE
Tampa Bay
NYJ
Pitts
Cinn
Balt
Green Bay
Chicago
San Diego
Oakland
Phila
NYG
Dallas
Ariz
Seattle I forgot to pick one game: and Indy *************** This from Len Pasquarelli at Espn.com: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=pasquarelli_len&id=2163378 Appropriately, in the fourth season of Dungy's stewardship, the "Cover 2" design that he brought with him from Tampa Bay, and which has been modified only a little during his Indianapolis tenure, might be significantly better in 2005. The unit has kind of been on a precipitous statistical slide, ranking eighth in 2002, then sliding to 11th in 2003, and plummeting all the way to No. 29 last season. There is a feeling this season, however, that the Colts have the right components to be markedly improved. This from the footballoutsiders: Indy Defense DVOA 2004 - 18th
2003 - 20th
2002 - 22nd Re: #14, #22 I was at the Pats (home) game years ago vs. Miami when Eason was pulled for Flutie. It was truly amazing (not in a good way). The crowd had the scent of blood right from the start. It was booing Eason every time he made a mistake. It was cheering (no typo) the Miami defense every time they sacked Eason. Finally, Berry yanked Eason (I can't remember if he had gotten dinged, or if Berry just didn't want to put him through that anymore). The crowd went wild. Of course, this was the crowd that a few years later was throwing around naked red-haired blow-up sex dolls in the stands. Re: #38 Come on -- give the Pats a little break... In the 45-year history of the team, those were the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th national commercials ever to feature the team (the 1st being last year's "not in our house" VISA commercial). So I think they deserve some slack. :) As a reader of this site since about seek 9 of last season, this has to be the first time the Bears have dominated the discussion. Is this the result of the Chicago fans (like me) coming out of the woodwork in full force, or is the Lions at Bears game this week the most difficult to predict (thus we're all trying to get our logic ironed out before making our picks)?
Or both? re 33
ummmmmmm maybe?
i really don't kmow after one week
A. the bears looked really bad week 1
B. i was kind of being a smart ass My observations of the Dolphins/Broncos game week one. I tried to post this in the week one thread, but for some reason it didn't take...I figure it reflects problems and advantages that will carry with both teams for a while, though, so week two is just as good. Why did the Broncos go for it on 4th and goal in the second quarter? Theyâ€re playing the Dolphins…are they worried about falling behind to the point theyâ€re going to need every point possible? And why, if going for it on fourth down, do you run Tatum Bell up the middle? Itâ€s Tatum Bell. Up the middle. And it had failed twice on first and second down. The Broncos offensive play-calling throughout the game was pretty atrocious. Itâ€s a credit to the Dolphins†D as well, but it looked like the Broncos told the Dolphins†D each play right before they ran it. Right after the announcers got done talking about how Gerard Warren was a new man and led all the D-line sprints in camp, Gerard Warren gave up and barely jogged after a retreating O-line with Gus Frerotte rolling away in his own endzone and nobody open. He probably wouldnâ€t have gotten the safety, but if heâ€d pressured the away side of the line in any way, there was a chance someone on the other side of the line could have broken through and gotten a safety, or pressured Frerotte into throwing an INT, instead of just an incomplete. Jake Plummer is one of the most perplexing players in the game. He makes a decision like throwing the ball away on 3rd and goal early on, but then on 1st and 10 with under ten seconds left in the first half he aims at his running back and throws hard before the back, still behind the LOS, is ready. At first I thought it was a total miscommunication and that Plummer had screwed up again, but then I realized that he had meant to throw an incompletion to stop the clock and that he had thrown it at his back because he was still inside the tackle box and would have been penalized 15 yards if heâ€d simply thrown it away. So he threw it away instead by throwing it at a player. Pretty heads-up play on his part. The Broncos kickoff specialist doesnâ€t look promising. He was kicking low and short at times. Ronnie Brown looks pretty good but the Dolphins O-line doesnâ€t seem to know how to run block. You have to give a lot of credit to the Broncos linebackers and the secondary. They had no pass rush all day. Thatâ€s bad against the Dolphins O-line. Frerotte had all day, itâ€s just that half the time he hurried when there was nobody close to him and the other half of the time the pass was a little off or the receivers dropped the ball. The Randy McMichael “Whoops, I just fell down on the goal line, looks like youâ€ll sack my quarterback, but now I just caught the touchdown passâ€? play was pretty sweet, even if it wasnâ€t intentional. The Broncos triple-teamed the touchdown machine Jason Taylor and must not have realized that a human being can coordinate his arms and legs to actually get back up after slipping. There were a few drives where the Dolphins would pass a few times and the balls would bounce off of completely wide open receivers†hands, and then finally a play in which someone would catch the ball would happen and get a big gain. But they dropped a heck of a lot of spot-on Frerotte passes. Jake Plummer looks dorky with a mustache. I'm curious as to what others who saw the game think on these points, especially regarding that Broncos D-line. Open Question coming, I need some advice. My Mother is off to California next week, and while she's out there I want her to pick up a jersey for me. Ideally, I'd like a Dolphins jersey. Will she have any problem getting one in California? If this is a REALLY STUPID QUESTION I'm sorry, but I'd hate to wind up with a Marcel Shipp Jersey because I didn't know what the score is. Thanks in advance. :) James (London) -- Your mother should be able to find a Dolphin jersey in California, so long as she is near a shopping center with a sports store. (It's not easy to avoid shopping malls in California, but it can be done.) The Dolphins have something of a national following from their glory years -- not so extensive as Pittsburgh's or Oakland's, but most stores which stock such things, will keep a 'phins jerseys or two on hand. Your choice of player names will probably be limited. What cities will she be visiting? We might be able to locate a specific store convenient to her itinerary, even ask someone if they have a Dolphin jersey they could hang onto for her. James (London) -- Your mother should be able to find a Dolphin jersey in California, so long as she is near a shopping center with a sports store. (It's not easy to avoid shopping malls in California, but it can be done.) The Dolphins have something of a national following from their glory years -- not so extensive as Pittsburgh's or Oakland's, but most stores which stock such things, will keep a 'phins jerseys or two on hand. Your choice of player names will probably be limited. What cities will she be visiting? We might be able to locate a specific store convenient to her itinerary, even ask someone if they have a Dolphin jersey they could hang onto for her. 41 A look at Indy/Dungy Defense (DVOA) versus cost (Playing salary - cap value of all defensive players) 2000 DEF Playing salary $25.7m, 0% SALVOA, 9.0% def DVOA, DEF EFF -9.0% 2001 DEF Playing salary $22.2m, -12.5% SALVOA, 16.1% def DVOA, DEF EFF -3.6% Enter Dungy 2002 DEF Playing salary $21.5m, -17.6% SALVOA, 7.4% def DVOA, DEF EFF 10.2% 2003 DEF Playing salary $20.5m, -31.5% SALVOA, 2.2% def DVOA, DEF EFF 29.3% 2004 DEF Playing salary $17.9m, -45.3% SALVOA, 2.3% def DVOA, DEF EFF 43.0% (SALVOA - Salary Value Over Average) For the small amount Indy pays for its defense, they get tremendous value. Is this a result of their high powered offense, coaching, or front office (signing players to contracts worth less than they should be making)? I think a combo of all three, esp since Dungy was hired. This week it will be more of the same - high powered offense and a defense focused on pressuring the QB. Starshatter, Thanks for the help. Mum's visiting, San Diego, 'Frisco, LA, and Vegas, among others. Any other help is greatly appreciated. RE: 50 A look at Indy/Dungy Defense (DVOA) versus cost (Playing salary - cap value of all defensive players) For the small amount Indy pays for its defense, they get tremendous value. Is this a result of their high powered offense, coaching, or front office (signing players to contracts worth less than they should be making)? It has to do with 3 main elements in order of importance. Scheme, Front Office, Coaching. I mean, I may be totally wrong, and would love to hear counter arguments, but it seems obvious what it is. The Cover 2 is all about containment. You allow, and contain. You allow small catches, and make the quick tackle. You allow some running, and make the tackle. The whole scheme is dependant on quickness, tackling, and allowing them to move the ball a little. So you try and pepper the mix with as many distrupting forces as possible. It's okay to allow an offense to gain 10 yards on a drive if they don't score. It's okay to allow an offense to gain 50 yards if they don't score. So you force them to use as many plays as possible while maximizing the chances for an interception, and a sack by your front 4. Worse case senario? You have to rely solely on your defense/3rd down mistake, which isn't a bad bet, just not an overwhelmingly scary one. Best case senario, more oppertunities for sacks and interceptions. I think yards per game will be a very bad indicator of how good the defense is. And the parts are all mostly interchangeable. So they can be on the cheap. As long as you get the right type of players, and are willing to stick with a defense that looks bad. You have to not change your defense while watching another team drive on it. I'm rambling now. It's early, do we all understand though? (If you disagree, please explain! I'd love to hear it) am tired of football fans always getting on T.O. and Randy Mossâ€s case. These guys make the game entertainng, who had the top 2 highest selling jerseys last 2 years, Randy Moss this year and Terrell Owens last year, you guys break down every single play these guys make, you donâ€t scrutinize any other recievers but when its Moss and T.O. they take plays off and all this other stuff. T.O. 98 TDâ€s Moss 91 TDâ€s if these guys can take plays off and score that many touchdowns, why canâ€t the “hard workers who go hard on every playâ€? score nearly 100 TDâ€s. NUFF SAID P.S. Marvin Harrison benefits from Peyton Manning and earlier in his career got targeted for more passes than MOSS AND T.O. I think the reason the Colts defense has a high Salary Value over Average is a combinsation of necessity and good drafting/coaching. Keeping thier offense together has limited the amount of salry cap space they can devote to defense. Because of this they've built the defense almost entirely though the draft. Dungy does a really good job identifying players who work well in his scheme, and that's who they draft. Also they do a good job developing said players once they get them. We scrutinize Moss and TO because they want us to. Come on, the "Randy Ratio?" How can you NOT talk about that? Sure, people can talk about, say, Jerry Rice, but conversations about him usually are "Is he the best or not?" rather than "Is he good for the game with his antics?" or "Is he just hyped up because he shoots his mouth a lot?" So at that point it becomes a balance between "annoying disruptions" and "really f-ing good WR," so it naturally follows that they're going to get a lot of scrutiny. re #35, I wouldn't say that's very accurate. I don't buy into the "Bellichek gets into x's head" idea. It might seem to us that "wow, they just can't do anything!" but that's less a product of them being scared of Bellichek and more of Bellichek just planning very, very well. It's just like chess; I wouldn't lose to Kasparov because I was incapacitated by fear, I would lose because he would see everything I was doing a mile away, and there would be little I could do about it. I also would argue that had Roethlisberger showed up in the playoffs, we wouldn't be having the "NE owns PIT in the playoffs like they do IND." I think NE's big success against IND isn't because of fear, but because of the offense's reliance on manning. Bellichek is very good at disguising his coverages and making unorthodox plays. If you then don't have a gameplan being made upstairs, separately from what they see lining up, you're going to be a lot more vulnerable to a defender ending up where you'd think he wouldn't be. And as a swordsman, I would like to mention that I am not afraid of flailing amateurs ;). James (London)-- Your best bet from that list is probably San Diego. I've linked the store locator page for the Sports Authority in California; they have 3 locations in San Diego, including downtown. One problem with sporting-goods stores is they tend to be located in the 'burbs outside of the major cities, which can add hours getting to and from. It's been a while since I've been to California personally, so I went with the national chains. Hope this helps! RE: 22 / Trogdor Matt Hasselback was booed mercilessly early in his Seattle career (because he sucked, of course). Dilfer was rotting on the bench fresh off his Superbowl win, and here was Holmgrem's protege that couldn't hit water from Fiji. I have no point. Starshatterer, Thanks again, thats very useful. On a different note, what are Miamis' chances this weekend. Were the Jets as bad as they appeared to be last week or are the 'Find in for a rude awakening? Fnor: I think much of what you say is right, but in the NE/INDY games, it's not so much Bellichek scheming as it is his defenders playing very well. Add in some poor but unforced play by Indy guys... For example, using last year's opening game: 1) It was T. Warren, not B. Bellichek, who popped the ball loose from James as James stretched for extra yards on a first down run that started at the NE 22 at the beginning of the third quarter.
2) It was E. Wilson, not B. Bellichek, who tackled James on the NE 1 and caused a fumble with NE leading 27-24 with 3:40 left in the game.
3) It was The Idiot Kicker, not Bellichek, who missed a 48 yard FG to tie the game with 48 seconds left. No pressure on the kick, just a bad kick, and perhaps the wind. Does Bellichek control the weather? In other words, Bellichek is very good, but this continual diefication of him without recognizing the tremendous skill of his players is, to me, laughable. We heard all year how great BB was at scheming with no-name DB's last year, and we still hear it this year (How will they do without Ty Law -- who didn't even play for them after a few weeks last year!), but they DID have Harrison, a Pro-Bowler, for almost every game. No one says Dungy, for example, is a great coach for having survived 11 (!) different DB starting groups last year to injury. At least for BB, he had the same no-names for most of the season, and he molded them into a pretty snappy group. But Dungy had a new salad mix every week. I know this is extreme, as the NE D was much better, but media pundits are looking for a star, so they annoint BB because he had some injuries in the secondary. No one even mentioned that in the playoffs, INDY played without Mathis, who had 10.5 sacks last year. You think that might have had a potential impact on the game? Did you hear ANYTHING about it in the pregame stuff? Anyway, bottom line for me is this: Yes, BB is very, very good. More important is that his players are very, very good. Re: 41 and the article linked It never ceases to amaze me how stupid so many sportswriters can be. Pasq is suggesting the Indy D has been regressing to the point that it's horrible, and suggests that it looks better this year. Problem with this is, he's basing his idea that it's been so bad on the yardage totals, and Indy ranked 29th last season. Anybody looked at Indy's rank after the first game this season? 28th. 16 more Baltimore-Indy near-shutouts and the pundits will all be talking about how much Indy's 28th ranked defense sucks. Just makes me want to smack 'em all. *15 more 52 I agree with what you stated about the cover 2. However, I tend to think scheme and coaching are the same. Coaches pick the scheme and then teach their players how to play that scheme. Dungy is great at this. Also, I think Indy's DEF relies on the front four pressuring the QB. It seems, with rule changes kind to the WR, the best pass defense is pressuring the QB. The shut down CB cannot really be a shut down corner with the rules as they are...see Champ Bailey. Indy (along with many other teams...see NE, PIT) understands this, and they hope to generate the pass def with pressure from the front four; unlike the Steelers who use alot of zone/overload blitzing. Having a CB who's cap value is more than $6m -$7m, to me, is not smart in the current NFL. They simply are not worth it. Indy's highest cap value CB last year was Harper, $1.4m; according to USAToday. I was pointing out how remarkable it is that Indy's total playing salary on defense was just under $18m or 45% less than the average defense cost that year (2004). At such a low cost, they performed very well (2.3 DEF DVOA). (Manning, James, and Harrison total playing salary in 2004 was $23.1m. Just those three players counted more against the cap than their entire DEF - including backups!) That, to me, is almost as amazing as their offense was. Anyone notice that Tom Harmon at CBS Sportsline has picked nine games to be one point games? (How many of those were there in all of last season?) Saw the following in an AP piece a couple of days ago:
"I'm not a fine guy, I don't go back and try to point fingers on what
people did," McNabb said after he practiced yesterday. "If it didn't
happen, it's not going to stop my preparation for San Francisco. It's
nothing that's going to make me go out and buy a Wendy's triple-stacked
cheeseburger. I'm not going to buy them any flowers or take somebody from
the league out to eat." Thety say he was hurt in the sternum, but since I can't understand a word he said here, I'm wondering if both helmets weren't involved. RE: #46 I only watched a couple of series from the game, but I did catch the moster reverse to Chambers. Gosh golly gee was that a nice play. And I'll wager that that play played (with that syntactical selection, can you tell it's the weekend?) a large part in Denver's lack of a pass rush. When you get burned in pursuit, it can make you gunshy all day. Those darned college coaches... Hi Jake, SALVOA? That's brilliant! Is it your creation? You gotta like KC to cover against Oakland. It's essentially a pickem and KC looked damn good last week. Damned good. Best bet? Jacksonville to cover against Indy. 9 points? They WON in Indy last season. And the game they lost at home was by 7. Both teams improved themselves in the offseason. I think Jacksonville maybe more so, but we'll see. 66 Yes, I suppose it is my creation. Any better suggestions? If you like salary cap numbers, I have one of those free geocities web pages with 1994-2004 salary cap numbers. 2000-2004 I have SALVOA, positional break down, and EFF. I used USAToday salary data base and Football Outsiders', the best football site, DVOA. It is linked on my name. Re: SALVOA Are you making any adjustments for the non-linearity of DVOA and salaries, or is it just (avg salary/DVOA). For example, lets say you spend X dollars to get a defense (or any other unit) with a DVOA score of Y. A different team spends 2X dollars and gets a DVOA score of 1.5Y. So you are getting more bang for your buck, but only if 1.5Y DVOA is not twice as good as 1Y DVOA. Unfortunately "twice as good" is hard to define because there are so many other factors in the game. Is -30 DVOA twice as good as -15? is -6 twice as good as -3? Is -2 twice as good as -1? I really don't know the answer to these questions, and I do like the SALVOA measure -- just trying to figure out how much it really says about a team. To calculate salary effectiveness, you need to use replacement-level as your 0 point for effectiveness and minimum wage as your 0 point for payments, otherwise you get meaningless numbers, because being a .520 players isn't twice as valuable as being a .510 player, its more like 7%. So twice the DVOA isnt twice the value. On the other hand, twice the DPAR is twice the value so you could use that instead. Jake - Nice work on that site. I don't have time to check it out now, but I'm bookmarking it. Good breakdowns on the money. Not sure how much of it is USA Today and how much of it is you, but it's the only place in which I've seen all that salary information in one place. At least for BB, he had the same no-names for most of the season, and he molded them into a pretty snappy group. No he didn't. It wasn't just Law. The other starter, Ty Poole also missed virtually the whole season. Then, the next backup, Asante Samuel, missed a lot of time. Then, the back up after that, Randall Gay, missed a lot of time. It wasn't until late in the season that the Pats had a stable week-to-week pair of corners on the field. The Pats started 40 different players last year. Steeler fan here. I smell a trap at Reliant. They confused Maddox badly two years back. Remember, Capers worked with Cowher in the early years and knows how to get to the Jaw. Unless Parker and the tight ends repeat last week's play (For the TE's, this includes blocking), it could be ugly. One warning for the Giants fans, Plex showed his two big weaknesses last week already. He doesn't catch the high balls all that well, and he goes down too easily on first contact. For a tall guy, he seems to have a small guy's skill set Jake: That site is very interesting, thank you for building it. 2001 San Franciso was an awesome irregularity, I never knew it was that strong. While I agree wholeheartedly that Plexiglass Burress goes down WAY too easily, he did occasionally make some amazing high ball catches with the Steelers (Steeler fans think he's forgotten college and has stopped going down without a hit and coming up spiking the ball, but you never know.) Last year, Roethlisberger threw the ball into a loose triple coverage around Burress, but threw it such that the only person who had a chance to catch it was Burress, and only the new improved Roethlisberger-influenced Burress. Plex made the leaping, diving catch and held on. Amazing play and either horrible decision making by Big Ben or evidence of additional practice that the two took advantage of, or a little of both.
Plex is likely to make a few outstanding plays, but all I can say is that the Giants overpaid for him. I do worry about the trap game possibility at Reliant. I think the line is better this year than during the previous game. But if Ben can't go, I really worry about a repeat performance, one of the worst losses you can imagine. Is Chicago the only one with a really crap tv schedule today? I understand the bears will be on. I can sort of see giving us Cleveland/Green Bay as a late game, but why is there no early afc game? Doesn't make any sense... The EFF ratings are linear, and certainly are not perfect. More of a starting point, just a comparison for now. Feel free to email me at the listed email with any suggestions on UNIT comparisons. Please do not make suggestions here at FO in this week 2 open discussion thread. Anyways, trying not to get off subject, week 2.... I look for San Diego to lose in Denver. Its a tough place to play, and the Broncos should be fired up after the dissappointing first week. It should be a great game. I think Minnesota needs a victory more than any other team. Starting the post Moss era 0-2 could be devastating for confidence. THeir defense will be tested by the Bengals Off. It would not surprise me to see Caroline beat NE., but then again, everytime I think NE will lose, they win. They always win. Two Good games in the UK tonight: Jags @ Colts and Falcons @ Seahawks. Hell of a play by Mike Peterson to pick a Mannig pass on their 1st drive. All Edge to the Red Zone, & POW! Peterson does his Reggie Wayne impression and picks one. Breaking news: McNabb and Owens just highfived each other after their hookup for a TD. Anyone else do what I did on that play? As he was flushed out of the pocket, I'm yelling at McNabb to just run for the first down... or he could pass it to Owens for 6. Man those guys are good. I wish I could watch afternoon games... We only get the night games here in Brazil. nfl.com lists Kyle Boller as having an attempt. LOL. Gamecenter screws up a lot every week. Harrington follows an INT by hitting Roy Williams with a bomb. But Detroit has no kicker. XP was blocked. I remember a play in 2003 where Ward had a catch for -19 yds and got tackled in the end zone for a safety. That scared the hell outta me. I was about to complain about the lack of offense in the NE/Car collision and Troy Brown gets a 71 yard completion to the Carolina 1 yard line. B, if you want lack of offence, switch to Jags @ Colts. Jags missd a 42 yd field goal, and that's it for 1 quarter re #76: I was thinking the same thing.. I wish I could see the Colts and Jags... is this a TV contract thing? Could Akers get himself cut? He's missed 3 of 4 this season. re:88
I was wondering the same thing. His last kick looked bad the instant it left his foot. At least this week it shouldn't cost Philly a win. What happened to Akers? I just saw Mark Simeneau (#53, linebacker?) kick an extra point for the Eagles. I don't know if he'll be cut, but some other guy kicked the XP after Philly's 4th TD. I am officially on the hot seat. Mike Bartrum (TE) handled the kickoff following that TD for the Eagles. Akers is on the sideline having his leg worked on after limping off after his third XP. Akers looks like he pulled a hamstring. Bartrum (WR #88) kicked off, a short kickoff. Akers limped off the field after a kickoff holding the back of his leg. So does JAX have a good defense, or are the Colts taking the day off? JAX really has a good defense. They match up well agianst the Colts. More importantly they have an offense that can stay on the field. Tim Rattay 2/9 13 yds 3 INT. Bring in the rookie. Jax D is really hot, Manning has very little time whenever he throws. Wow, the Bears haven't looked this good against ANY team (good or bad) in quite some time... Oh, and the officiating in the Colts game sounds royally awful... I was about to say, Da Bears looks really really good right now. Though the interception was really Detriot's fault, I'm still impressed with Orton's performance. ESPN's gamecast is 6 minutes behind the PIT/HOU game, but it keeps updating like it's correct. Very amusing. Is it just me, or does Zastudil seem to have declined? His punts are 35 yards in the air at most. Oh, and the Titans look really good today. Really. Vikings-Bengals 0-27 Vik's d can't get off the field, there have been 17 pts. off turnovers it's a trainwreck folks Vikings are done for the season. They look awful, worst than the Browns did last week. No one is in the right position on defense, everyone is trailing the receiver they're covering by 4-5 yards, and their offense... its a relief when they punt it without a turnover. Yeah, Orton is playing like a pro... so far... Oh my god... just as I submitted that, the most beautiful bears TD pass in probably 80 years! Bye bye Rex. I live in the Indy area so I'm not getting the Bears/Lions game but I'm looking at NFL.com's gamecenter and Kevin Jones has rushed 6 times while Harrington has thrown 18 times. What is up with Mooch? Meanwhile Orton is 10/14 for 119 yards. Also, the Jax/Ind game is a lot of yards going back and forth but no one can close the deal. CBS has the absolute worst halftime guys ever. Marino and Sharpe are horrible at announcing highlights. "Fr- Wch- ummmm, Titans score" The non-football guy they have has a pretty good voice though. Given the way that the Titan's defense looked last week, and the way they look this week, perhaps we should reconsider the Colts defense. Willie Parker against the Titan's run defense: 22 rushes for 161 yards (long 45), 1 catch for 48 yards, no fumbles Jamal Lewis against the Titan's run defense in the first half: 7 rushes for 12 yards (long 13), 1 catch for 9 yards, 1 fumble (lost) So if the Ravens offense is this inept, and they still managed to get 400 yards against the Colts D... Here in Chicago, with the TV on Fox and Bob Lamey on the computer, I have my windows open and can hear cheers all up and down the block. Have the Bears ever scored this much in a half? Has a Bears QB ever thrown for more than 100 yards in a game? Too bad this game is not a true indicator for the Bears season. The Officials in Indy are having real problems with ball spots. Both Teams have had one really poor decision on 3rd Down to force punts. The Colts are monstering Jax when Leftwich drops back, but their run D looks suspect. I suspect that Jax are much happier with 0-0 at the half than the Colts, but this is a really interesting game to watch. If anyone is watching, what is happening in Cincy? Of the eight games at or near halftime now, six teams have been shutout. That's a rarity. And what's up with the Bears? Break them up! 30-6 and it's not even halftime. As has been said elsewhere, it really doesn't matter how many yards a defense allows - it's the final score that counts. It would be nice if the Colts could stragle a team and keep them to 50 yards of offense in a game, but if those 50 yards somehow lead to 31 points, what's the point? Being the only one to predict the Vikings collapse is feeling so sweet right now. Who's announcing Chicago games on the computer? Where, how? Yeah the spotters have been bad in the Indy game. The announcers keep saying D'Wight Freeney as if there are two syllables in his first name. I have never heard anyone do that. What happened on the int for a TD in the Chicago game? Gamecenter briefly showed Det. TD nullified by personal foul on Harrington then switched to int/ returned for a TD. What happened to the Pats? James, in Cincinnatti vikings have a turnover pretty much every 100 seconds they have possession, and can't muster two first downs without a fumble. The defense was on the field 12 min in the first quarter so that should give you a hint on the gameflow. Second quarter was just a continuation of the first, dante looks horrible plus he had some bad luck on his last pick #113 - Only the Stillers have the skill to give up 31 points on 50 yards. "What happened to the Pats?" Maybe, despite everyone jumping off the bandwagon after a three-point loss to a fired-up team, they are actually for real and can be an elite team this year. David Carr is getting killed against the Steelers, who have recognized the slowness of the Texans O-line and are rushing a safety pretty much every other play. re #115: I'm doing the free 7 day trial of NFL.com field pass radio on internet, listening to the inimitable Bob Lamey announce the Colts, while keeping an eye on the Bears.. i never thought the hometown team would be more entertaining than Manning and co. and another int by dante 30 sec into the second half Everybody should be glad they don't live in cleveland, we have choices between steelers-texans 20-0, or vikings-bengals 27-0. ohh the choices re:76 The TV network with the doubleheader can't show a game against a team playing at home. Thus CBS has no early game today in Cinci, Philly or Chicago. By the way, I'm the guy who at the top of this thread tabbed the Pats and Lions as the plays of the day. I mean, is this game easy to figure out or what? Oh well, Steelers rolling and Pats on the ropes takes the sting out of being so wrong. Wait a second, Peter King also predicted the Vikings collapse by saying that Mike Tice would be the Coach of the Year. Pats look sloppy. Brady's had a mediocre game. I think they'll win it in the end, because I root for them. 122:
Oregon isn't any better. The only game on here is Steelers-Texans. Even if we screw it up, it really feels good to be a Bears fan right now. Uhm, why do we care what books Orton's reading or what his favorite vacation spot is? This is my first NFL weekend in the Dayton/Cincinnati area, and I'm already thinking I need Direct TV. Because the Bengals are on Fox, I get stuck with a division rival on CBS, which means the Steelers. So we go to a restaurant with Sunday Ticket and 19 TVs - and 16 of them are on either the Bengals or Steelers. Um.... They seat us, and every TV in our section is on one of those games. I ask if they can change one to Indy/Jax, nope. How about NE/Carolina? It's already on one, a 14-incher in another section. Tampa/Buffalo? Not enough interest, I'm told. Doesn't someone asking about it count as interest? What's the point of getting Sunday Ticket if you're just going to show the games that are shown locally anyway? I hope the waiter enjoys not getting the 200% tip I leave when I can sit there for 4+ hours watching football. I need to find a place like I had in Toledo, where every TV was a different game (Browns on one big screen, Lions on the other), every TV was labeled with what game would be on it so we'd know where to sit, they expected people to stay for the entire game and didn't get mad if you were there 2 hours after you were done eating... So I'm home watching Cincy, occasionally flipping to Pitt, and debating whether DirecTV or a rope from the rafters would be less hassle. From Pitt, Roethlisberger has looked good. Real good. The O-line is dominant again, Parker is mocking Houston's D as he waltzes around them, it's a complete mismatch. I know their level of competition hasn't been the best so far, but I'm thinking Pitt looks like they should win 12 or 13 again. Cincy is up 27 on the Vikings, and it should be a lot worse. So far they've had an 84-yard TD called back by a dumb penalty, threw an INT from inside the 5, forced a fumble inside the 10 that was called back by a stupid penalty (Pollack lined up offside), and had drives stalled by numerous false starts and delays of game. At one point Culpepper was 5/7 for 16 yards. Minnesota looks horrible. If they were in the AFC, they'd be lucky to go 6-10. As it is, they should still make the playoffs. They've turned it over 9 times already this year, can't run, can't pass, and can't stop anyone. Aside from that, they should go to the Super Bowl. The Bengals just forced another fumble that will come back because Pollack was offsides. Of course, knowing it was a free play, Culpepper just sent everyone long and held the ball forever, so it probably wouldn't have happened otherwise. Interesting thing with Akers (PFP jinx?) going out - why is the punter not kicking instead of using a linebacker? At what point do you just say, screw it, let's go for two every time? I would think your chances are at least half as good as a LB converting, so it would make sense to go for 2, right? I'm so glad I don't play fantasy football, or I might have Culpepper on my team. Another pick on another horrible throw. Of course, soon he'll be playing NFC North teams, and putting up 6 TDs a game, so it won't be so bad. How many years ago was it when Wilkins went out for the Rams and they just went for it every time they scored? This year is not a good year to be a kicker, lots of injuries, missed FGs and missed PATs. Also, I drafted Akers because he's the best kicker in the league and now I'm looking like an idiot. What does it mean that Culpepper and Akers are Loser League studs these last two games? gamebreaking update: bengals punted for the second time at the 7 min mark of the 3rd q. Get ready for another vikings offense trainwreck Could pro football be staged, just like pro wrestling? I mean, how else to explain some of these scores and individual performances? Tags probably sits in his secret underground lair and transmits orders through the headsets of guys like Culpepper and Akers, ordering them to inexplicably suck to increase overall interest in the anything could happen NFL. re: 134 - how else to explain Manning today? It's like the old days, when you could count on a big come-from-behind performance... will it work today? Wow, that was a dumb play by Delhomme. Barelly pressured by the Pats defense, but unable to find anybody open, he either tries to flip a pass to the fullback or throw it away. The ball goes right to Vrabel, who returns it for a touchdown. So who's more worried about his job today: Joey Harrington, Mike Tice or Andy Reid if McNabb gets hurt in this game? Oh my God... the Pats - Panthers announcing is absolutely horrendous! Steve Neal went out with an injury and Russ Hochstein subbed in. They didn't mention this until he made a false start. I saw Nick Kazur on the field a couple time during offensive series'... NO MENTION! And they seemed a bit bewildered when the Patriots started going to short passes, screens and draws after two quarters of unsuccessful mid-deep throws. It's just... so... bad... #135 Yes, but looks like it'll come from Edge, not Manning... Culpepper has always been mistake-prone. In 2000, he was responsible for 22 turnovers.
In 2001, 20 turnovers.
2002: 32 turnovers
2003: 17 turnovers
2004: 15 turnovers
last week: 5 turnovers In the last two years, he's improved in both interception rate and fumble rate, but at the same time, in the 75 games he's played, he's been intercepted 77 times and he's fumbled 78 times, losing 33 of them. That's an average of an interception and a fumble per game. It's just he's usually had ludicrous TD totals both passing and rushing to offset this and make it look smaller. But the truth is he's a turnover machine and I think now, in an offense without Randy Moss, it's finally showing how erratic and mistake-prone he can be. I think we'll know for sure if Kerry Collins really picks up this year with a lot of long completions and downfield TDs. Reid should only have to worry about psycho Philly phans. Tice is a miracle - how has he hung on this long? Who knows about Harrington... such nice flashes, then futility. That was a BEAUTIFUL TD pass he threw against the Bears today... Correction on the Delhomme interception, looks like he was throwing the ball to where S. Davis was, not noticing that he had ran downfield. Vrabel pounced in the bad throw like a big cat going after a gazelle. great drive by the vikings results in a punt from their own 3-yard line. LTA, if Tagliabue could script games, I somehow doubt he would crank out halftime scores of 27-0, 28-0, 20-0 and 31-6. Unless he wanted to create Fantasy Football Loser's League futures market. #138 would you like to trade with me?? I'll take panthers-pats with a unicorn announcing instead of this blowout I see what people complain about with ESPN's gamecast. I've been using it to follow the Indians since I don't get them on TV anymore and don't feel like sitting in my car listening to them on XM every night. So I'm checking the scores, and this is the score by inning for Toronto (hopefully beating the Yankees):
1 3 0 0 1 -1
Negative one. Wow. I've used it before for football, and it's never been quite that bad. But I do feel for those of you who are stuck using it. Cincy just got called for a headbutt on their punt return. Apparently they have some Somoans on their special teams, because if the WWF taught me anything, it's that Somoans have extremely hard heads and will headbutt anything. I'm not sure what my favorite dumb wrestling racist stereotype is, but that's gotta be up there. Though I have no love for the Lions, I feel really sorry for Harrington. Why is that? Is it the adorable hang-dog face? or simple schadenfreude? 144: True, true. But then again, there is always something fascinating about a complete train wreck for a team projected to do well. This gives us all something to talk about. I have a question. With a solid speed back in Michael Bennett and two solid inside runners like Moe Williams and Mewelde Moore, why oh why did the Vikings only attempt 12 runs to 38 passes last week? Gamecenter shows them as having 10 runs (for 64 yards, no less) and 24 pass attempts. Anyone think this might this have something to do with their general offensive suckiness? Who's calling the Colts game? It sounds like Simms, but I'm not sure. Earlier he cited a points above league average based on starting field position. He just cited the drop rates for Wayne 2.5% and Harrison. 4.4% Not sure if he bought a copy of PFP or what. November 8, 1:26pm ET

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