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New COVID Variants Are Gaining Ground Is a Winter Wave Coming

The proportion of U S cases caused by omicron offshoots including BF 7 BA 4 6 and BQ 1 is on the rise

MARVIN RECINOS / Getty Images Omicron’s BA.5 is still the dominant subvariant of the coronavirus circulating in the U.S. But a few , and experts are keeping a close eye on their potential to upend the progress that’s been made since last winter’s surge as we head into another cold-weather season. Among the emerging subvariants are BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, two offshoots of BA.5 that together account for roughly 17 percent of coronavirus infections in the U.S. Trailing them is BA.4.6, also an omicron descendant, which is behind about 11 percent of COVID-19 cases in the country. And then there’s BF.7, which currently accounts for nearly 7 percent of coronavirus infections. Get instant access to members-only products and hundreds of discounts, a free second membership, and a subscription to AARP the Magazine. It’s too early to know which, if any, of these omicron strains will take off and become the leading version of the virus, Amesh Adalja, M.D., a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, told AARP in early October. “They’re all kind of still competing with each other, and it’s unclear which will be dominant.” The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, however, projected in an Oct. 21 that BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 will become the dominant coronavirus strains in Europe by mid-November or early December. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently noted that these two subvariants seem to be spreading quickly here but still make up a small proportion of overall variants. It’s also unclear whether the new variants will drive a new wave of illness this winter, like we’ve seen in the past when delta and omicron surfaced. Andrea Garcia, the American Medical Association’s vice president of science, medicine and public health, recently said that the U.K. seems to be heading into a fall wave — one that may be driven by new omicron subvariants. “And experts say the U.S. may be next,” Garcia said.

Booster shots could keep hospitalizations low br

There’s still a lot we don’t know about the new subvariants and the impact they could have, says Sabrina Assoumou, M.D., a professor in the section of infectious diseases at the Boston University School of Medicine. But researchers are monitoring a few concerning traits. that some of the newer variants, including BF.7, can reduce the effectiveness of Evusheld, a monoclonal antibody treatment used as a pre-exposure prophylaxis in immunocompromised individuals. What’s more, the mutations in these new strains could make them more immune-evasive, Adalja says. However, even if that’s the case, it doesn’t necessarily mean they will render protections from the vaccines or a prior infection powerless. Health & Wellness Access AARP health Smart Guides, articles & special content See more Health & Wellness offers > The shots we’ve had access to so far have helped reduce the risk of hospitalization and death in many, regardless of the variants circulating, points out Aditya Shah, an infectious disease specialist at the Mayo Clinic. “We hope that that remains, because we don’t want to overwhelm the health care systems this winter.” Roughly 3,150 Americans are still being hospitalized every day for COVID-19, CDC data shows. And with a on the horizon, health care workers are bracing for numbers to swell. (During the 2019-2020 season, 390,000 Americans were hospitalized with the flu, according to the CDC.) Cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which is most dangerous in infants and older adults, also typically spike in the cold-weather months. “We are entering into the winter months, where no matter what the respiratory disease is, there’s always a risk of an uptick in respiratory diseases,” Anthony Fauci, M.D., chief medical adviser to the president, said during a recent USC Annenberg Center for Health Journalism webinar. One thing that could help subdue a storm of hospitalizations this winter: the , which are now available to vaccinated people age 5 and older. A from the Commonwealth Fund finds that if 80 percent of eligible Americans roll up their sleeves for the shot — which targets omicron’s BA.4 and BA.5 and also the original strain of the virus for a broad swath of protection — 936,706 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 could be averted and nearly 90,000 lives could be saved.
AARP Membership — $12 for your first year when you sign up for Automatic Renewal Get instant access to members-only products and hundreds of discounts, a free second membership, and a subscription to AARP the Magazine. from the Kaiser Family Foundation finds. Older adults are the exception, with about half (45 percent) of people age 65 and older reporting they have received the updated booster or intend to get it “as soon as possible.”

A layered approach is key br

The emergence of these new variants tells us that the pandemic isn’t over yet and that taking a layered approach — and not relying on one tool alone — is going to be key this fall and winter, Assoumou says. First, make sure you’re up to date on your COVID-19 vaccines. And just like you check the weather for the week to prepare your wardrobe, pay attention to COVID-19 cases in your area. “I bring an umbrella [if] it’s raining. And you know, if cases are going up, I’m going to be during that time period, until cases start going back down,” Assoumou says.
Another important tool to keep on hand: COVID-19 tests. Even if you’re experiencing just mild symptoms — like a sore throat or cough — it’s important to test, Shah says. (There’s no indication that the new variants have affected the capabilities of our testing tools to detect infections, he adds.) If you’re positive for COVID-19, your health care provider may recommend to help keep a mild infection from progressing to something more severe. A recently published in The New England Journal of Medicine found that older adults who took Paxlovid during the omicron surge had a significantly lower risk of being hospitalized for COVID-19 or dying from the disease than those who didn’t take the antiviral. “And you will not be eligible for [treatments] if you cross a certain threshold of time from the start of your symptoms or if you don’t get tested,” Shah says. “You should not be sitting home waiting it out, saying, ‘Oh, I think I’ll be fine in a couple of days.’ You may be, but you may not be too.” The coronavirus will continue to evolve, Adalja says. It may do so as omicron or as a completely new variant. “And the best thing is to be vaccinated and to use tools like rapid tests and Paxlovid,” he says. “That’s how we tame this virus, by using all those tools.” Will There Be A COVID Surge This Winter? Rachel Nania writes about health care and health policy for AARP. Previously she was a reporter and editor for WTOP Radio in Washington, D.C. A recipient of a Gracie Award and a regional Edward R. Murrow Award, she also participated in a dementia fellowship with the National Press Foundation. MORE FROM AARP AARP NEWSLETTERS %{ newsLetterPromoText }% %{ description }% Subscribe AARP VALUE & MEMBER BENEFITS See more Health & Wellness offers > See more Restaurants offers > See more Health & Wellness offers > See more Health & Wellness offers > SAVE MONEY WITH THESE LIMITED-TIME OFFERS