NFC Conference Championship Preview
NFC Conference Championship Preview Football Outsiders Founder of Football Outsiders
Editor-in-Chief
Creator of DVOA and DYAR
Worcester, MA
ATL OFF PHI DEF DVOA -6.2% (24) -3.5% (13) TREND* 0.2% (17) -14.0% (4) PASS -34.9% (30) -7.2% (10) RUSH 16.6% (3) 0.7% (20) RED ZONE -3.7% (18) -8.2% (14) No dome team has ever won outside on their road to the Super Bowl, but the Falcons do not fear the elements after their upset playoff win in Green Bay two years ago. Most dome teams are based on speed and the pass, but the Falcons are driven by a three-man running attack. They were one of four teams to run on more than half their offensive plays, and no team ran for more yards or more yards per carry. It is not hyperbole to say that Michael Vick may be the finest running quarterback of all time. His value as a runner was three times greater than that of any other quarterback this season. (Scroll down for QB rushing value.) Some people have said that Vick needs the artificial turf and dome in Atlanta to run wild, but you may remember that he played on grass in college and looked plenty fast back then. His one deficiency as a runner is that he needs to do a better job of holding onto the ball. His fumble against the Rams could have been costly, and it happened because he kept the ball in his left hand instead of tucking it away in his right as he ran toward the right sideline. You may have heard that the Falcons have running backs as well. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, often ignored in Vick's shadow, are finally getting their due thanks to Atlanta's playoff run. Last year, Football Outsiders rated Atlanta as the in the NFL even though Vick started only four games. This year, the Falcons , trailing only the Jets and Chiefs. The improvement has come not only from the return of Vick but from the arrival of former Denver offensive line coach Alex Gibbs. The Falcons' line now uses many of the cut blocks that Denver opponents hate but that league rules say are legal. Atlanta runs were stuffed at the line less often than those of any other NFL team. The Eagles, however, substantially improved their run defense in Week 10 by re-installing Jeremiah Trotter in the middle linebacker position (check out that defensive trend DVOA). Take out the final two regular season games where most starters rested, and the Eagles have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry since Trotter rejoined the starting lineup (-16.6% DVOA). Before that, they allowed 4.9 yards per carry (7.1% DVOA). At 262 pounds, Trotter would seem to fit the bill of the linebacker who stuffs runs to the middle, but he's surprisingly nimble when pursuing runners on the outside as well. (There is speculation that Trotter will be assigned the job of shadowing Vick, much as Tampa Bay does with Derrick Brooks, and you have to wonder if this might cause the Eagles to suffer against Dunn and Duckett up the middle.) Stopping runs to the right side is still a weakness because defensive end Javon Kearse is a pass rush specialist. But that should be less of a problem against Atlanta, because the left-handed Vick scrambled left end 49 times and right end only 20 times. Safety Brian Dawkins is also an extremely talented run-stopper, and he'll be able to help contain the Atlanta backs if he's not needed to stop the pass. And there's no reason to believe he will be. The Falcons running game is one of the best in the league, but their passing game is horrific. Difficulties when adapting to a new offensive system are understandable, but Vick's regression as a passer since a fine 2002 season is simply bewildering. According to our ratings, the Atlanta running game -- as great as it is -- can only make half the difference between the abysmal Atlanta passing game and a league-average offense. Vick's superficial numbers look bad, but his actual performance was even worse because he had such hard time passing in the most important situations. When he had to pass on third down, Vick converted 20% less often than a league average quarterback. The more yardage needed for a new set of downs, the worse Vick was compared to the league average. Many would respond that Vick doesn't need to pass well on third downs because he can run. But while we all have an image in our minds of Vick scrambling for a first down against impossible odds, in reality he scrambled for a first down only twice on third-and-seven or more. And in the red zone, Vick was completely unreliable, with as many sacks and interceptions (four and two) as touchdowns (six) when passing on goal-to-go downs. His DVOA in these situations: -107.8%. Yikes. Because his mobility makes him think he can always rely on running away instead of throwing the ball away, Vick gets sacked more than three times a game, and now he must face the challenge of Philadelphia's complicated blitz packages. No defensive coordinator working today employs the blitz more than the Eagles' Jim Johnson, and he employs it in a variety of different formations. Jevon Kearse is known primarily as an outside rusher, and he will primarily be matched up against the inconsistent right tackle Todd Weiner (he fell down and didn't touch Leonard Little when Little sacked Vick in the Rams game). But he actually stunts to the inside at times, or lines up as a blitzing inside linebacker. Johnson will bring Dawkins on the blitz as well. Last week, Philadelphia only sacked Daunte Culpepper twice, but their pressure was constant and Culpepper was disrupted throughout the day. When Vick does try to pass, he has only one reliable receiver: tight end Alge Crumpler. But thanks to strong linebackers as well as coverage by Dawkins, the Eagles are one of the league's best teams defending passes to tight ends (-36.5% DVOA, fourth in the NFL). Even last week they covered Minnesota's Jermaine Wiggins well enough that Daunte Culpepper only threw to him twice. That doesn't mean that Vick won't find Crumpler, but it will be harder than usual. Once upon a time in Tampa Bay, Dunn was known as equal parts receiver and runner, but that's no longer the case. Dunn was thrown 39 passes this season -- by comparison, Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook was thrown 87 passes -- and was mostly used as a safety valve. But that safety valve might not be so safe against the Eagles, one of the league's best teams defending passes to running backs (-33.1% DVOA, fifth in the NFL). Over the course of the year, running backs failed to gain yardage against the Eagles on one out of every ten complete passes. The Eagles' corners can be beaten deep, as Marcus Robinson showed last week when he beat Lito Shepard for a 40-yard gain. Philly's defense was actually one of the league's worst in defending number one receivers. But against Atlanta, in snowy, windy conditions, does it really matter? Peerless Price is an affront to (insert name of deity here). He ranked out of 84 wide receivers with at least 50 passes and caught only 5 of 21 third down passes intended for him this season. And two of those were thrown by Matt Schaub.
Editor-in-Chief
Creator of DVOA and DYAR
Worcester, MA
January 21, 2005, 12:26 pm ET by Aaron Schatz, with additional analysis by Michael David Smith For a team that went 13-1 to open the season, the Philadelphia Eagles have had to face an awful lot of probing questions in recent weeks. Last week's big question was whether they could put points on the board despite the injury to star receiver Terrell Owens. This week, the football world is wondering whether the Eagles can overcome the legacy of three straight losses in the NFC Championship Game. The answer to the second question should be the same as the first: a resounding "yes." None of the past Philadelphia teams dominated their conference like this year's Eagles. Philadelphia was the only NFC team to rank in the NFL's top ten according to . The Falcons, meanwhile, rode an easy schedule (according to our rankings, the fourth-easiest in the league) sprinkled with a few spectacular wins to an 11-5 record. Predictions for this game are clouded not only by Atlanta's remarkable inconsistency but also by a weather forecast that includes . * * * * * For those who may be visiting this site for the first time to read this preview, some explanations for our statistics. DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You'll find it . Since DVOA measures ability to score, a negative VOA indicates a better defense and worse offense, and a positive DVOA indicates a better offense and worse defense. Each team is listed with DVOA for offense and defense, split into rush and pass, along with rank among the 32 teams in parentheses. (If the DVOA values are difficult to understand, it is easy to just look at the ranks.) I've also listed each team's red zone performance on offense and defense. TREND is the WEIGHTED DVOA trend, based on a formula which drops the value of games early in the season to get a better idea of how teams are playing now (). Weighted DVOA now includes playoff performance, and the weights for all teams were moved an additional two weeks ahead from the regular season. Except for TREND numbers, all DVOA statistics on this page are regular-season only unless otherwise noted. SPECIAL TEAMS numbers are different; they represent value in points of extra field position gained compared to NFL average. Field goal rating represents points scored compared to average kicker at same distances. All special teams numbers are adjusted by weather and altitude; the total is then translated into DVOA so it can be compared to offense and defense. Each team also gets a chart showing their performance this year, game-by-game, according to total DVOA. In addition to a line showing each game, another line shows the team's trend for the season, using a third-power polynomial trendline. That's fancy talk for "the curve shifts direction once or twice." Note that even though the chart appears in the section for when each team has the ball, it represents total performance, not just offense. Last week's NFC semifinals preview . The early week NFC conference championship debate discussion thread . This week's AFC conference championship preview .
WHEN THE FALCONS HAVE THE BALL
ATL OFF PHI DEF DVOA -6.2% (24) -3.5% (13) TREND* 0.2% (17) -14.0% (4) PASS -34.9% (30) -7.2% (10) RUSH 16.6% (3) 0.7% (20) RED ZONE -3.7% (18) -8.2% (14) No dome team has ever won outside on their road to the Super Bowl, but the Falcons do not fear the elements after their upset playoff win in Green Bay two years ago. Most dome teams are based on speed and the pass, but the Falcons are driven by a three-man running attack. They were one of four teams to run on more than half their offensive plays, and no team ran for more yards or more yards per carry. It is not hyperbole to say that Michael Vick may be the finest running quarterback of all time. His value as a runner was three times greater than that of any other quarterback this season. (Scroll down for QB rushing value.) Some people have said that Vick needs the artificial turf and dome in Atlanta to run wild, but you may remember that he played on grass in college and looked plenty fast back then. His one deficiency as a runner is that he needs to do a better job of holding onto the ball. His fumble against the Rams could have been costly, and it happened because he kept the ball in his left hand instead of tucking it away in his right as he ran toward the right sideline. You may have heard that the Falcons have running backs as well. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett, often ignored in Vick's shadow, are finally getting their due thanks to Atlanta's playoff run. Last year, Football Outsiders rated Atlanta as the in the NFL even though Vick started only four games. This year, the Falcons , trailing only the Jets and Chiefs. The improvement has come not only from the return of Vick but from the arrival of former Denver offensive line coach Alex Gibbs. The Falcons' line now uses many of the cut blocks that Denver opponents hate but that league rules say are legal. Atlanta runs were stuffed at the line less often than those of any other NFL team. The Eagles, however, substantially improved their run defense in Week 10 by re-installing Jeremiah Trotter in the middle linebacker position (check out that defensive trend DVOA). Take out the final two regular season games where most starters rested, and the Eagles have allowed only 3.7 yards per carry since Trotter rejoined the starting lineup (-16.6% DVOA). Before that, they allowed 4.9 yards per carry (7.1% DVOA). At 262 pounds, Trotter would seem to fit the bill of the linebacker who stuffs runs to the middle, but he's surprisingly nimble when pursuing runners on the outside as well. (There is speculation that Trotter will be assigned the job of shadowing Vick, much as Tampa Bay does with Derrick Brooks, and you have to wonder if this might cause the Eagles to suffer against Dunn and Duckett up the middle.) Stopping runs to the right side is still a weakness because defensive end Javon Kearse is a pass rush specialist. But that should be less of a problem against Atlanta, because the left-handed Vick scrambled left end 49 times and right end only 20 times. Safety Brian Dawkins is also an extremely talented run-stopper, and he'll be able to help contain the Atlanta backs if he's not needed to stop the pass. And there's no reason to believe he will be. The Falcons running game is one of the best in the league, but their passing game is horrific. Difficulties when adapting to a new offensive system are understandable, but Vick's regression as a passer since a fine 2002 season is simply bewildering. According to our ratings, the Atlanta running game -- as great as it is -- can only make half the difference between the abysmal Atlanta passing game and a league-average offense. Vick's superficial numbers look bad, but his actual performance was even worse because he had such hard time passing in the most important situations. When he had to pass on third down, Vick converted 20% less often than a league average quarterback. The more yardage needed for a new set of downs, the worse Vick was compared to the league average. Many would respond that Vick doesn't need to pass well on third downs because he can run. But while we all have an image in our minds of Vick scrambling for a first down against impossible odds, in reality he scrambled for a first down only twice on third-and-seven or more. And in the red zone, Vick was completely unreliable, with as many sacks and interceptions (four and two) as touchdowns (six) when passing on goal-to-go downs. His DVOA in these situations: -107.8%. Yikes. Because his mobility makes him think he can always rely on running away instead of throwing the ball away, Vick gets sacked more than three times a game, and now he must face the challenge of Philadelphia's complicated blitz packages. No defensive coordinator working today employs the blitz more than the Eagles' Jim Johnson, and he employs it in a variety of different formations. Jevon Kearse is known primarily as an outside rusher, and he will primarily be matched up against the inconsistent right tackle Todd Weiner (he fell down and didn't touch Leonard Little when Little sacked Vick in the Rams game). But he actually stunts to the inside at times, or lines up as a blitzing inside linebacker. Johnson will bring Dawkins on the blitz as well. Last week, Philadelphia only sacked Daunte Culpepper twice, but their pressure was constant and Culpepper was disrupted throughout the day. When Vick does try to pass, he has only one reliable receiver: tight end Alge Crumpler. But thanks to strong linebackers as well as coverage by Dawkins, the Eagles are one of the league's best teams defending passes to tight ends (-36.5% DVOA, fourth in the NFL). Even last week they covered Minnesota's Jermaine Wiggins well enough that Daunte Culpepper only threw to him twice. That doesn't mean that Vick won't find Crumpler, but it will be harder than usual. Once upon a time in Tampa Bay, Dunn was known as equal parts receiver and runner, but that's no longer the case. Dunn was thrown 39 passes this season -- by comparison, Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook was thrown 87 passes -- and was mostly used as a safety valve. But that safety valve might not be so safe against the Eagles, one of the league's best teams defending passes to running backs (-33.1% DVOA, fifth in the NFL). Over the course of the year, running backs failed to gain yardage against the Eagles on one out of every ten complete passes. The Eagles' corners can be beaten deep, as Marcus Robinson showed last week when he beat Lito Shepard for a 40-yard gain. Philly's defense was actually one of the league's worst in defending number one receivers. But against Atlanta, in snowy, windy conditions, does it really matter? Peerless Price is an affront to (insert name of deity here). He ranked out of 84 wide receivers with at least 50 passes and caught only 5 of 21 third down passes intended for him this season. And two of those were thrown by Matt Schaub.