Game Previews DEN SD and GB PHI
Game Previews: DEN-SD and GB-PHI Football Outsiders Founder of Football Outsiders
Editor-in-Chief
Creator of DVOA and DYAR
Worcester, MA
(with rank out of 32 teams) POS DENVER SAN DIEGO WR1 12.0% 18 -1.4% 11 WR2 25.3% 29 2.4% 16 Other WR 9.5% 17 -9.8% 9 Tight Ends -33.3% 4 33.0% 27 Running Backs -45.4% 3 -7.5% 17 Remember, defensive DVOA is better
when it is negative;
DVOA vs. specific receivers does not consider
sacks or passes without intended receivers. Instead, Denver needs to worry about San Diego's wide receivers, particularly Eric Parker. According to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings, which compare performance on every play of the season to league average (), Denver has been near the top of the league defending passes against running backs as well as tight ends -- but they have been below average defending passes to wide receivers and one of the league's five worst teams defending passes to number two receivers. Young, quick receivers like Oakland's Jerry Porter, Cincinnati's Chad Johnson, and Carolina's Keary Colbert have had big games against the Broncos, and Parker fits that mold. San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson and Denver's Reuben Droughns will play a role in this game, but expect the importance of these running backs to be overstated. Tomlinson has been hobbled by groin and toe injuries and he has seen last year's 5.3 yards per carry average drop to a subpar 3.8 yards per carry. Droughns, meanwhile, has racked up big numbers against bad defenses, but San Diego is excellent at stopping the ground game. They allow a mere 3.8 yards per carry, fifth best in the league, and are also one of the best teams at preventing rushes from converting on third-and-short. The only time Droughns faced a run defense that came close in quality, he had a mere 49 yards in 15 carries against Atlanta. San Diego, however, cannot stop the pass the way they can stop the run. They have no pass rush, a major problem against a strong offensive line like Denver's and a quarterback who avoids sacks like Jake Plummer. Plummer has been sacked only seven times, third best in the league; San Diego only has 19 sacks, third worst in the league. Plummer threw for 294 yards and two touchdowns the first time these teams met, and he'll need a similar game to match the proficient San Diego scoring machine. Watch for tight end Jeb Putzier to play a major role; the Chargers are as poor against opposition tight ends as the Broncos are strong, and Putzier caught all five passes thrown his way for 66 yards in the first meeting of these teams.
Editor-in-Chief
Creator of DVOA and DYAR
Worcester, MA
December 04, 2004, 2:08 am ET by Aaron Schatz The slate of early games on this week's NFL schedule is but an appetizer for football fans, with two late afternoon games as the main course. In one, San Diego and Denver battle for the AFC West title. In the other, Green Bay tries to show Philadelphia that its path to the Super Bowl is not entirely unobstructed.
DENVER 7-4 at SAN DIEGO 8-3
San Diego's record stood at 1-2 after losing to Denver 23-13 on September 26. Drew Brees threw for only 121 yards in that game and looked more impressive as a receiver than as a passer after a touchdown reception on a halfback option. Through three games he had completed only 54 percent of passes, and fans were calling for first-round pick Philip Rivers to take over as starting quarterback. Since then the Chargers are 7-1 and have scored more points than every team in football except Indianapolis. Over those eight games, Brees has completed 69 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and just a single interception. His favorite target, Antonio Gates, is only one touchdown away from tying the tight end single season record of 12. Among Charger fans, calls for Rivers to replace Brees have been replaced by agonized attempts to figure out how the Chargers could possibly keep both. Now the Chargers and Broncos meet again with the AFC West title on the line. If the Chargers win, they will have a two-game lead on the Broncos with three of their four remaining games against below-.500 opponents. If the Broncos win, however, their season sweep over San Diego will give them the tiebreaker advantage should both teams finish the season with an equal number of victories. Gates would seem to be the perfect weapon against a Denver defense that constantly left Oakland receivers open in the middle of the field last Sunday night. But with one exception, Atlanta's Alge Crumpler, no opposing tight end has had more than 35 yards receiving against the Broncos. They held Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez to a season-low 17 yards, and Gates himself to a season-low 30 yards. No tight end this year has scored a touchdown against them. Defensive DVOA vs. Specific Receivers(with rank out of 32 teams) POS DENVER SAN DIEGO WR1 12.0% 18 -1.4% 11 WR2 25.3% 29 2.4% 16 Other WR 9.5% 17 -9.8% 9 Tight Ends -33.3% 4 33.0% 27 Running Backs -45.4% 3 -7.5% 17 Remember, defensive DVOA is better
when it is negative;
DVOA vs. specific receivers does not consider
sacks or passes without intended receivers. Instead, Denver needs to worry about San Diego's wide receivers, particularly Eric Parker. According to Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings, which compare performance on every play of the season to league average (), Denver has been near the top of the league defending passes against running backs as well as tight ends -- but they have been below average defending passes to wide receivers and one of the league's five worst teams defending passes to number two receivers. Young, quick receivers like Oakland's Jerry Porter, Cincinnati's Chad Johnson, and Carolina's Keary Colbert have had big games against the Broncos, and Parker fits that mold. San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson and Denver's Reuben Droughns will play a role in this game, but expect the importance of these running backs to be overstated. Tomlinson has been hobbled by groin and toe injuries and he has seen last year's 5.3 yards per carry average drop to a subpar 3.8 yards per carry. Droughns, meanwhile, has racked up big numbers against bad defenses, but San Diego is excellent at stopping the ground game. They allow a mere 3.8 yards per carry, fifth best in the league, and are also one of the best teams at preventing rushes from converting on third-and-short. The only time Droughns faced a run defense that came close in quality, he had a mere 49 yards in 15 carries against Atlanta. San Diego, however, cannot stop the pass the way they can stop the run. They have no pass rush, a major problem against a strong offensive line like Denver's and a quarterback who avoids sacks like Jake Plummer. Plummer has been sacked only seven times, third best in the league; San Diego only has 19 sacks, third worst in the league. Plummer threw for 294 yards and two touchdowns the first time these teams met, and he'll need a similar game to match the proficient San Diego scoring machine. Watch for tight end Jeb Putzier to play a major role; the Chargers are as poor against opposition tight ends as the Broncos are strong, and Putzier caught all five passes thrown his way for 66 yards in the first meeting of these teams.