Week 15 Scramble Open Thread Football Outsiders
Week 15 Scramble/Open Thread Football Outsiders &
"It's a rules question, kind of. And I want to know what I propose is illegal, and if it isn't, then why the hell have I never seen someone pull this off. And if they did it successfully, would they not be hailed as a hero. Let me paint the scenario. eam driving for a tying/winning score. No time outs left. Pass over the middle to a receiver, there's no way he can get out of bounds to stop the clock, too far to make it to the end zone. So why doesn't the receiver simply chuck the ball out of bounds. Pass it to the guy holding the parabolic microphone. Anything. Just fling the ball to the sidelines. Wouldn't that be considered, technically, a fumble? And I know that the ball couldn't go forwards (Dave Casper rule) but why not sideways, or slightly backwards? After all, if David Patten, two years ago, can be unconscious, but still out of bounds with his head and touching the ball with his foot, why is this not illegal, unless it's already in the rule book as a "delay of game" type of thing? "I need to know if this is illegal. And if it's not, can you guys start campaigning to make this play known? Because I think it would be smart as hell. But that's just me. Thanks." reat question. I've never understood why players don't intentionally fumble the ball out of bounds more often. I think I'll be finding a copy of the in my stocking this Christmas, but until then I'll have to go by NFL.com's abridged version of the . NFL's state that "a fumble that goes forward and out of bounds will return to the fumbling team at the spot of the fumble unless the ball goes out of bounds in the opponent's end zone. In this case, it is a touchback." I don't see anything in the abridged rules that would make what Greg is suggesting illegal. One problem may arise if the throw out of bounds is considered a "forward pass". The don't give any specific definition of "forward pass". It does say, however that the offensive team is only allowed one forward pass per play. A second forward pass results in a five yard penalty. Even if the play is legal, it would be very dangerous to try. Presumably a WR would only try this if there were defenders blocking his route out of bounds. If the WR tries to throw the ball past these defenders, he runs a huge risk of turning the ball over which would probably worse result than just not being able to stop the clock. Ian: This is a very good idea, and frankly, I don't foresee any problem. If the receiver is about to be tackled, I can see it being a risky idea because of the chances of him fumbling the ball as he attempts to do this. But when a player is trying to stop the clock, firing a lateral out of bounds behind him ought to be a successful way to do it. Of course, the only true way to know whether this is legal or not is to wait until a team actually does it, then wait for the NFL to release a statement letting us know what the actual rule is. They're secretive like that.
December 11, 2003, 1:11 pm ET
The Future Conan Yes Super Bowl Futures
by Al Bogdan and Ian Dembsky Welcome to Scramble for the Ball, where we discuss all things football. We'll have commentary on the latest NFL stories, as well as our Best Bets of the week and updates to our Survivor League (check the for full details). Al's a long-time Giants fan originally from Long Island, and Ian is a long-time Tampa Bay fan originally from Jersey, and we're both NFL and fantasy sports addicts. Look for Scramble updated every Thursday afternoon during the NFL season, and feel free to email us with any thoughts at . Al: Am I crazy, or do the Baltimore Ravens have a shot at winning the Super Bowl this year? Their defense is among the best in the league, both by conventional measures and by Football Outsiders' innovative . The only thing that has been holding Baltimore back has been their putrid offense and poor QB play. According to VOA, Baltimore has had the in the NFL, sandwiched between Arizona and Detroit. I think those numbers will start increasing very soon, now that the Anthony Wright era has begun. Over the past three games, Wright and the Ravens have averaged 39.7 points per game. Wright has found a favorite WR in Marcus Robinson, rejuvenating a career that was in risk of ending just a few weeks ago. Wright has given Robinson at least another three years in the NFL based just on the last three games. Wright deserves at least 10% of whatever deal Robinson signs after this season. But, I digress. If the Ravens can keep this offensive performance up, I don't see any glaring weaknesses in their team. Baltimore is getting 15-1 odds right now to win the Super Bowl. That looks like a pretty solid bet to me. Ian: When the Ravens made the playoffs four years ago I had a feeling that their dominating defense and solid running game could carry them to a Super Bowl title, and I won $1,000 on it by betting on them early in the postseason at 5-1 odds. This team isn't quite as dominating defensively as the squad from 2000, but their offense has been a bit better thanks to the inspired play of Anthony Wright. But I'm not as big a fan of the Ravens with a slightly better offense and worse defense. When it comes playoff time, Anthony Wright cannot be counted on to protect the ball on the road at New England or Kansas City. I wouldn't bet any significant amount of money that he can lead the Ravens to four straight playoff wins, especially when two of those will be at the opponents' home stadiums. Besides, no matter who you think of as a potential Super Bowl champion, they'd have to go through the New England Patriots. Who's gonna beat these guys? They rush the passer. They intercept passes. They stop the run. They don't run the ball very well, but well enough. They've been hitting long passes at clutch times, and they connect on the short ones when they need to. And their schemes are incredible. You never know what they're gonna do on defense. Speaking of the Pats defense, I wanted to expand a bit on Bruschi's interception returned touchdown. The play was a wonderful one, and it's the same one Ronde Barber used to seal the Bucs trip to the Super Bowl against the Eagles last year. When a linebacker blitzes, the slot receiver on that side is instructed to do a slant in, as that part of the field is now vacant. Often this works very effectively for an 8-10 yard gain. But what Bruschi did (and he did the same thing against the Lions during last year's Thanksgiving game) was to fake the blitz at the snap. Things happen so fast, that the quarterback instinctively fires it to the slanting receiver, but by faking the blitz, Bruschi (and Barber) were able to drop in the passing lane for an easy pick and touchdown return. I'm surprised I don't see this tactic more often; at worst you give up a first down. (Aaron: Isn't this the same thing Aeneas Williams did against Cleveland that was ? He also got a touchdown out of it.) Al: The Falcons pulled a similar play against the Giants earlier this year. They actually had set the play up a quarter before. A Falcon blitzed from the corner and Kerry Collins threw the hot route slant to the WR the blitzing DB was lined up against for a first down. The next quarter, a Falcon DB blitzed again, but CB Tod McBride was expecting the slant and stepped right into the route. Four plays later, the Falcons were up by 13 points. New England has to be the favorite in the AFC, but Baltimore might be the team that matches up the best with the Patriots. The Patriots' strength on offense is their passing. New England is #10 in and #31 in rushing. Baltimore? They have the second best in the league. I wouldn't be too quick to discount Baltimore's chances just because of their quarterback. It's not like Johnny Unitas was slinging passes when the Ravens won the Super Bowl in 2000. Of course, Baltimore could still miss the playoffs completely, but at 15-1 they look to be the best Super Bowl futures bet right now. I guess I didn't miss much living in NYC and not being able to watch a game of any importance on either CBS or FOX. For all of the hype coming into the week, only one game could be considered close and exciting. The Pats/Dolphins game was close, but was watching two teams punt to each other in the middle of a blizzard really that exciting? 360 yards of combined total offense! Three points scored in the first 50 minutes of play! 11 punts! The NFL, it's FAAAAN-TASTIC! It looks like Sunday's best game was in Tennessee. I'm pretty surprised that the Colts were able to pull this one out on the road. That should all but lock up the division for Indianapolis, with only two winnable home games and a road game in Houston left on their schedule. Maybe the Colts will get lucky and the Titans will lose a couple of more games to fall into the #6 seed. I always like the chances of a team in the playoffs playing a team they've already beaten twice that year. Maybe that's how Dungy and Manning finally find their way out of the first round. Ian: What was that? Don't tell me you've finally given Indianapolis a shot at winning a playoff game, have you? Wow, I guess anything's possible. I certainly wasn't surprised that the Colts won last week, it helped me maintain my slimming lead in our Best Bets competition. With Edge running as powerfully as he has been, and Manning passing the ball the way he has, the Colts are never out of any game. They've shown that twice this year, in Tampa and against New England. How about taking the Colts to win the Super Bowl at 7-1 odds? Actually, the line I really like right now is St. Louis at 7-1. They look to be on their way to home field advantage in the playoffs, especially with Marshall Faulk playing like... well, Marshall Faulk. And we all know how good they can be at home. Bulger's tendency to throw interceptions is a bit worrisome, but the Rams overcome that with great defense. Not only do they lead the league in takeaways, but they're as far ahead of #2 Kansas City in that department (40-32, an eight turnover difference) as Kansas City is ahead of the #13 teams (Atlanta and Jacksonville, with 24 each). The ability to create turnovers is a key to playoff success, and no one is better at it than the Rams. Al: I really like those 7-1 odds for the Rams. I don't see why the Eagles are 4-1 and the Rams are only 7-1. I guess it's because Philadelphia would have home field advantage if the season ended today. New England is getting way too much love at 3-1 odds. I like their chances to win it all, but that's way too low. We've had our first coaching casualty of the season. Dan Reeves was told that he wouldn't be retained next year, so he asked for an extra three weeks off for the holidays. I can't say I blame him for wanting out now. Nor can I really blame the Falcons for letting him go. Is Reeves the reason Atlanta only has three wins? Of course not. But someone needs to take the fall for the Falcons' disappointing season. If he's still interested in coaching, I think he'll get another chance next year. I'll guess he ends up in San Diego and the Chargers make the playoffs next year. Ian: You think Reeves will coach in San Diego? Man, I think it's time for him to retire. Coaching again may get him some more commercial opportunities for heart-attack medicine, but I can't imagine he'll be much of an improvement over Marty Schottenheimer. Then again, isn't anyone an improvement over Marty Schottenheimer? I totally agree on you about the Patriots Super Bowl odds... Who would make a bet on them at 3-1 odds with so many more games left to go? It's not like the odds will change all that much from now till the end of the playoffs. If the Pats are at home vs. Kansas City in the AFC championship game, the odds for them to win the Super Bowl might still be 3-1.Scramble for the Ball Mailbag
Ian: We've got a couple of emails from the Scramble Mailbag; remember you can email us just about any football question at . Vivek from New York writes in with this question: "In two leagues, I have Tiki starting with Bettis on the bench. Bettis goes against the Jets D this week, and we all know how effective the Jets D has been against the run. With the Giants pretty much out of it, I'm worried that Fassell will finally pull Tiki, or at least max him out at like 70 yards and no goal line carries. Should I make the change or go with what got me here?" Ian: Well, Tiki certainly has been lacking in goal line carries, thanks to his fumbling habit and Dorsey Levens' ability to cross the stripe. But looking at how the Saints have done at home against opposing running backs, I can't imagine benching Tiki. Warrick Dunn: 23 carries, 162 yards. Stephen Davis: 31 carries, 178 yards. Anthony Thomas: 21 carries, 96 yards. Kerry Collins might not play this week, and if Jesse Palmer takes over, he'll probably look to dump the ball off to Tiki whenever he drops back to pass. Tiki's got a good shot at scoring on a screen pass or something along those lines. Al: Thanks, Vivek! I don't think Fassel will pull Tiki to save him or to give his young players a shot. He said this week that he was still going to play the players he thought would give NY the best chance to win, instead of playing the young players just to see what the Giants have. I don't really agree with that reasoning, it sounds like Fassel is just trying to get a few futile wins in a last ditch effort to save his job. I agree, play Tiki over Bettis. Our second email is from Greg: "Here's the deal. I have searched long and hard and have sent many emails to many 'experts' and have yet to hear an answer to my question. Hopefully, you can help."It's a rules question, kind of. And I want to know what I propose is illegal, and if it isn't, then why the hell have I never seen someone pull this off. And if they did it successfully, would they not be hailed as a hero. Let me paint the scenario. eam driving for a tying/winning score. No time outs left. Pass over the middle to a receiver, there's no way he can get out of bounds to stop the clock, too far to make it to the end zone. So why doesn't the receiver simply chuck the ball out of bounds. Pass it to the guy holding the parabolic microphone. Anything. Just fling the ball to the sidelines. Wouldn't that be considered, technically, a fumble? And I know that the ball couldn't go forwards (Dave Casper rule) but why not sideways, or slightly backwards? After all, if David Patten, two years ago, can be unconscious, but still out of bounds with his head and touching the ball with his foot, why is this not illegal, unless it's already in the rule book as a "delay of game" type of thing? "I need to know if this is illegal. And if it's not, can you guys start campaigning to make this play known? Because I think it would be smart as hell. But that's just me. Thanks." reat question. I've never understood why players don't intentionally fumble the ball out of bounds more often. I think I'll be finding a copy of the in my stocking this Christmas, but until then I'll have to go by NFL.com's abridged version of the . NFL's state that "a fumble that goes forward and out of bounds will return to the fumbling team at the spot of the fumble unless the ball goes out of bounds in the opponent's end zone. In this case, it is a touchback." I don't see anything in the abridged rules that would make what Greg is suggesting illegal. One problem may arise if the throw out of bounds is considered a "forward pass". The don't give any specific definition of "forward pass". It does say, however that the offensive team is only allowed one forward pass per play. A second forward pass results in a five yard penalty. Even if the play is legal, it would be very dangerous to try. Presumably a WR would only try this if there were defenders blocking his route out of bounds. If the WR tries to throw the ball past these defenders, he runs a huge risk of turning the ball over which would probably worse result than just not being able to stop the clock. Ian: This is a very good idea, and frankly, I don't foresee any problem. If the receiver is about to be tackled, I can see it being a risky idea because of the chances of him fumbling the ball as he attempts to do this. But when a player is trying to stop the clock, firing a lateral out of bounds behind him ought to be a successful way to do it. Of course, the only true way to know whether this is legal or not is to wait until a team actually does it, then wait for the NFL to release a statement letting us know what the actual rule is. They're secretive like that.