Market Mavens Survey: Investors Optimistic About 2019 Despite Uncertainty Bankrate.com Caret RightMain Menu Mortgage Mortgages Financing a home purchase Refinancing your existing loan Finding the right lender Additional Resources Elevate your Bankrate experience Get insider access to our best financial tools and content Caret RightMain Menu Bank Banking Compare Accounts Use calculators Get advice Bank reviews Elevate your Bankrate experience Get insider access to our best financial tools and content Caret RightMain Menu Credit Card Credit cards Compare by category Compare by credit needed Compare by issuer Get advice Looking for the perfect credit card? Narrow your search with CardMatch Caret RightMain Menu Loan Loans Personal Loans Student Loans Auto Loans Loan calculators Elevate your Bankrate experience Get insider access to our best financial tools and content Caret RightMain Menu Invest Investing Best of Brokerages and robo-advisors Learn the basics Additional resources Elevate your Bankrate experience Get insider access to our best financial tools and content Caret RightMain Menu Home Equity Home equity Get the best rates Lender reviews Use calculators Knowledge base Elevate your Bankrate experience Get insider access to our best financial tools and content Caret RightMain Menu Loan Home Improvement Real estate Selling a home Buying a home Finding the right agent Additional resources Elevate your Bankrate experience Get insider access to our best financial tools and content Caret RightMain Menu Insurance Insurance Car insurance Homeowners insurance Other insurance Company reviews Elevate your Bankrate experience Get insider access to our best financial tools and content Caret RightMain Menu Retirement Retirement Retirement plans & accounts Learn the basics Retirement calculators Additional resources Elevate your Bankrate experience Get insider access to our best financial tools and content Advertiser Disclosure
Advertiser Disclosure
We are an independent, advertising-supported comparison service. Our goal is to help you make smarter financial decisions by providing you with interactive tools and financial calculators, publishing original and objective content, by enabling you to conduct research and compare information for free - so that you can make financial decisions with confidence.
Our articles, interactive tools, and hypothetical examples contain information to help you conduct research but are not intended to serve as investment advice, and we cannot guarantee that this information is applicable or accurate to your personal circumstances. Any estimates based on past performance do not a guarantee future performance, and prior to making any investment you should discuss your specific investment needs or seek advice from a qualified professional. How We Make Money
The offers that appear on this site are from companies that compensate us. This compensation may impact how and where products appear on this site, including, for example, the order in which they may appear within the listing categories. But this compensation does not influence the information we publish, or the reviews that you see on this site. We do not include the universe of companies or financial offers that may be available to you. Editorial disclosure
All reviews are prepared by our staff. Opinions expressed are solely those of the reviewer and have not been reviewed or approved by any advertiser. The information, including any rates, terms and fees associated with financial products, presented in the review is accurate as of the date of publication. SHARE: Drew Angerer/Getty Images January 28, 2019 Adrian D. Garcia Bankrate logo The Bankrate promise
At Bankrate we strive to help you make smarter financial decisions. While we adhere to strict editorial integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners. Here's an explanation for how we make money. Bankrate logo The Bankrate promise
Founded in 1976, Bankrate has a long track record of helping people make smart financial choices. We’ve maintained this reputation for over four decades by demystifying the financial decision-making process and giving people confidence in which actions to take next. Bankrate follows a strict , so you can trust that we’re putting your interests first. All of our content is authored by and edited by , who ensure everything we publish is objective, accurate and trustworthy. Our investing reporters and editors focus on the points consumers care about most — how to get started, the best brokers, types of investment accounts, how to choose investments and more — so you can feel confident when investing your money. Investing disclosure: The investment information provided in this table is for informational and general educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment or financial advice. Bankrate does not offer advisory or brokerage services, nor does it provide individualized recommendations or personalized investment advice. Investment decisions should be based on an evaluation of your own personal financial situation, needs, risk tolerance and investment objectives. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. Bankrate logo Editorial integrity
Bankrate follows a strict , so you can trust that we’re putting your interests first. Our award-winning editors and reporters create honest and accurate content to help you make the right financial decisions. Key Principles
We value your trust. Our mission is to provide readers with accurate and unbiased information, and we have editorial standards in place to ensure that happens. Our editors and reporters thoroughly fact-check editorial content to ensure the information you’re reading is accurate. We maintain a firewall between our advertisers and our editorial team. Our editorial team does not receive direct compensation from our advertisers. Editorial Independence
Bankrate’s editorial team writes on behalf of YOU – the reader. Our goal is to give you the best advice to help you make smart personal finance decisions. We follow strict guidelines to ensure that our editorial content is not influenced by advertisers. Our editorial team receives no direct compensation from advertisers, and our content is thoroughly fact-checked to ensure accuracy. So, whether you’re reading an article or a review, you can trust that you’re getting credible and dependable information. Bankrate logo How we make money
You have money questions. Bankrate has answers. Our experts have been helping you master your money for over four decades. We continually strive to provide consumers with the expert advice and tools needed to succeed throughout life’s financial journey. Bankrate follows a strict , so you can trust that our content is honest and accurate. Our award-winning editors and reporters create honest and accurate content to help you make the right financial decisions. The content created by our editorial staff is objective, factual, and not influenced by our advertisers. We’re transparent about how we are able to bring quality content, competitive rates, and useful tools to you by explaining how we make money. Bankrate.com is an independent, advertising-supported publisher and comparison service. We are compensated in exchange for placement of sponsored products and, services, or by you clicking on certain links posted on our site. Therefore, this compensation may impact how, where and in what order products appear within listing categories. Other factors, such as our own proprietary website rules and whether a product is offered in your area or at your self-selected credit score range can also impact how and where products appear on this site. While we strive to provide a wide range offers, Bankrate does not include information about every financial or credit product or service. Top-notch investors aren’t quite sure what to make of the president’s administration, according to new survey results from Bankrate. Most professionals surveyed (38 percent) indicated they were either uncertain or did not have an answer as to whether investors were being helped or hurt by the actions of President Donald Trump’s administration, according to the Q1 2019 Market Mavens survey. Overall, the group still expects to see gains in 2019. A quarter of respondents were neutral on whether the Trump administration’s tariffs, tactics and tweets were creating a benefit or toll for Wall Street. Of the experts who strayed from middle, 25 percent said the actions of the Trump administration were benefiting investors; almost 13 percent said they were hurting. Investors are getting a little bit of both: hurt and help, says Curtis Holden, CFA, senior investment officer at Tanglewood Total Wealth Management. “Some Trump policies – corporate tax cuts and deregulation – are very pro-growth while other more recent policies – arguing with trade partners and criticizing the Fed – have been disruptive and are fanning uncertainty in the economy,” Holden says. The trade talks are one area, for example, giving investors pause. While renegotiated trade with China could lead to longer-term positives, the negotiations and policies are disruptive in the shorter term. “The market tends to evaluate the next six to 12 months rather than the next 10 years,” Holden says. The Q1 2019 Market Mavens Survey was conducted from Jan. 9-16 via an online poll. Sixteen experts from investment firms and research organizations provided answers. Experts predict double-digit gains for stocks
While the White House may leave investors scratching their heads, on average the experts told Bankrate they expected to see the S&P 500 reach a full-year double-digit percentage gain, despite losing ground in 2018. On average, the investors expect to see the S&P 500 index finish 2019 at 2,817.08, up 12.3 percent from the close of 2018 and 5.4 percent from 2017. The survey released Monday finds that professional investors remain bullish on the outlook for stocks through the end of this year, says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. “Despite the extreme volatility, both in the stock market and the Washington-centric news cycle, the recent bounce in the market can be seen as a basis for optimism for the full year, or so one hopes,” Hamrick says. However, he was quick to caution, “Events of the past few months have served up a dramatic reminder that when volatility to the downside appears to be in hiding for good, it can return with an attention-getting vengeance.” Bigger gains in US or global stocks It s a toss-up
Analysts are evenly divided on the question of whether the U.S. or global equities will lead returns in 2019. Among the experts, 44 percent said investors would see the best returns in the U.S. market; the same percentage said the better returns would be found globally. Almost 13 percent of respondents indicated that returns from stocks would be about the same in the U.S. and global markets. Uncertainty is likely here to stay for 2019, says Bob Phillips, managing principal at Spectrum Management Group. “Non-U.S. developed and emerging markets currently trade at a discount to the U.S. due to greater uncertainty about their growth rates and recession possibilities,” Phillips says. “Those markets will trade higher due to the discount but likely will not exceed U.S. returns when adjusted for currency.” Industry professionals were split on whether people should look to growth or value stocks in 2019. Most (44 percent) said growth stocks – shares of a company expected to increase in value rather than pay higher dividends – were likely to provide the greatest returns throughout 2019, according to the survey. A quarter of respondents disagreed, opting for value stocks, which tend to provide a higher dividend yield and trade at a lower price. Twenty-five percent of experts expected growth and value stocks to yield about the same results. Meanwhile, 6 percent of the panel had no answer. 10-year Treasury yield expected to climb
An advance in the stock market would come amid a backdrop of rising . On average, the experts see the yield of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note ending the year at 3.04 percent, up from the 2.69 percent at the end of 2018. Rising 10-year Treasury rates are thought to create a headwind for the stock market. The impact of rising rates can be felt throughout the economy, making debt costlier for mortgage holders and those with credit card balances. Methodology
Bankrate’s first-quarter 2019 survey of stock market professionals was conducted from Jan. 9-16 via an online poll. Survey requests were emailed to potential respondents nationwide, and responses were submitted voluntarily via a website. Responding were: Robert A Brusca, chief economist, Fact and Opinion Economics; Marilyn Cohen, president of Envision Capital Management Inc.; Brett F. Ewing, chief market strategist, First Franklin Financial Services; Kim Forrest, Fort Pitt Capital Group, senior portfolio manager and vice president; Jeffrey A. Hirsch, CEO of Hirsch Holdings Inc. and editor-in-chief of Stock Trader’s Almanac; Curtis Holden, CFA, Tanglewood Total Wealth, senior investment officer; Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer, Hugh Johnson Advisors; Audrey Kaplan, head of global equity strategy, Investment Institute; David Lafferty, chief market strategist Natixis Investment Managers; Tom Lydon, ETF Trends, publisher; Brian Nick, chief investment strategist, Nuveen; Patrick J. O’Hare, Briefing.com, chief market analyst; Jim Osman, founder and CEO, The Edge Group; Bob Phillips, Spectrum Management Group, managing principal; Sam Stovall, CFRA Research, chief investment strategist; Wayne Wicker, Vantagepoint Investment Advisers, chief investment officer. SHARE: Adrian D. Garcia Related Articles