The yield curve, and economists, are increasingly certain of recession

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Markets and economists are increasingly certain of recession

, author of Data: Factset; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios VisualsEconomists and market indicators that the U.S. is either already in a cyclical downturn, or soon will be. Driving the news: Perhaps the most-watched market indicator for predicting recessions — a so-called inversion of the yield curve between 3-month and 10-year Treasuries — is now near at hand. How it works: An inversion is a bit of bond market jargon that describes an unusual situation in which shorter-term Treasury yields rise above yields on Treasuries that mature later.In recent days, the yield on 3-month Treasury bills shot sharply higher, while the yield on the T-note has been steady.Now, the 10-year is yielding just 0.12 percentage points more than the 3-month bill — perilously close to going negative, aka inverting. Why it matters: While large parts of the yield curve , the relationship has a special status.Over the last 60-odd years, when this particular part of the Treasury yield curve has inverted, a recession has followed within two years.That makes it perhaps the single best market-based indicator of recessions.Check out from Duke University finance professor Campbell Harvey, the dean of yield curve watchers, for more. Zoom out: The yield curve isn't alone.Since yet another hotter-than-expected inflation report earlier this month, economic forecasters have turned increasingly dour.An economic model from of a recession within 12 months (though a separate Bloomberg survey puts it at 60%).A the odds at 63% in August, up from 49% in July. Unemployment remains remarkably low, but traditional rules of thumb say we're already in a recession since we've had .The official call on recessions is made by , however. The bottom line: Both the markets and economists seem to think the current downturn, soft patch, or whatever you want to call it, is going to get worse.

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