Holiday Deals Bargains for Shoppers as Retailers Shed Overstock
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Amazon.com has wrapped up its attempt to duplicate the magic of its Prime Day sale, a traditional midsummer event, with its "Early Access Sale" that ran Oct. 11-12 and was – according to Amazon, at least – a big success. There was competition, too, from Target, Walmart and others. Eighty of the top 100 retailers, in fact, held sales events to compete with Amazon in early October. Discounts averaged 21%, which likely pulled sales forward from later in the season.
Many vendors, you see, have more inventory than they'd like. That spells opportunity, not just for customers, but for discount brands like T.J. Maxx and Burlington and even liquidators such as Channel Control Merchants. Higher-end brands may be forced to sell off much of their unwanted inventory to the bargain chains, boosting the latter's sales.
And expect those October sales to become an annual tradition, eating into Black Friday and Cyber Monday a bit, though both of those established sales days remain key.
By the numbers, then, all this discounting and persistent inflation means – for retailers – only a so-so season in terms of overall sales growth. Rising prices will account for most of the gain in revenues, rather than actual volume increases. Figure on nominal sales growing by 7%. Factoring in inflation, just a 1% increase from last year. Retailers with strong pricing power stand to do better than that. Those forced to discount or dump inventory, as we mentioned, may fare much worse. Some hot sellers this holiday season, based on an early read of import data:
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Holiday Deals Bargains for Shoppers as Retailers Shed Overstock
Many (though not all) vendors will be turning to discounts and clearances even as inflation eats at their sales. (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) Newsletter sign up Newsletter (Image credit: Getty Images) By David Payne last updated 17 October 2022 Inflation has been the watchword for 2022, but as holiday shoppers go to the mall or order online (yes, it's on, whether you like it or not), discounting will brighten their prospects, even as it cuts into retailers profit potential.Amazon.com has wrapped up its attempt to duplicate the magic of its Prime Day sale, a traditional midsummer event, with its "Early Access Sale" that ran Oct. 11-12 and was – according to Amazon, at least – a big success. There was competition, too, from Target, Walmart and others. Eighty of the top 100 retailers, in fact, held sales events to compete with Amazon in early October. Discounts averaged 21%, which likely pulled sales forward from later in the season.
Many vendors, you see, have more inventory than they'd like. That spells opportunity, not just for customers, but for discount brands like T.J. Maxx and Burlington and even liquidators such as Channel Control Merchants. Higher-end brands may be forced to sell off much of their unwanted inventory to the bargain chains, boosting the latter's sales.
Last-minute Deals This Christmas
Shoppers who procrastinate will also be in luck this year. Last-minute deals will multiply as the season winds down. With Christmas Eve on a Saturday this year, expect plenty of deep discounts for those doing their last-minute holiday shopping.And expect those October sales to become an annual tradition, eating into Black Friday and Cyber Monday a bit, though both of those established sales days remain key.
By the numbers, then, all this discounting and persistent inflation means – for retailers – only a so-so season in terms of overall sales growth. Rising prices will account for most of the gain in revenues, rather than actual volume increases. Figure on nominal sales growing by 7%. Factoring in inflation, just a 1% increase from last year. Retailers with strong pricing power stand to do better than that. Those forced to discount or dump inventory, as we mentioned, may fare much worse. Some hot sellers this holiday season, based on an early read of import data:
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Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail. Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's expert advice - straight to your e-mail. Sign up Apple's AirPods Pro noise-canceling earbudsThe new Apple Pencil, an electronic device for taking notes on touchscreens.Footwear, everything from fancy leather shoes to winter boots.Pickleball gear – paddles and more for America's new paddle sport rageLuggage, as people take up post-COVID travel. Watches and jewelry. For kids, toy kitchens. Whatever sells, more of it will be sold on social media platforms like TikTok. David PayneStaff Economist, The Kiplinger LetterDavid is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Latest Worried About Inflation? You Can Help Protect Yourself From Its Impact Delaying major purchases can help shield present you, and future you could benefit from continuing to invest and contribute to your retirement plans. By Kelly LaVigne, J.D. • Published 13 November 22 What Is Lifetime Income Insurance Worth? A Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) could be just what you need when markets are down and you're worried about future income. By David Blanchett, PhD, CFA, CFP® • Published 12 November 22 kiplinger About Us (opens in new tab) Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab) Privacy Policy (opens in new tab) Cookie Policy (opens in new tab) Kiplinger is part of Future plc, an international media group and leading digital publisher. Visit our corporate site.© Future US, Inc. Full 7th Floor, 130 West 42nd Street, New York, NY 10036.