Who Will Win the 2022 Midterm Elections? Kiplinger
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How to account for the recent GOP surge? First, it was supposed to be a Republican year. The president's party almost always takes a beating during the midterms. So, it should be no surprise that political conditions shifted back in favor of the GOP, following a temporary Democratic upswing earlier this fall.
According to Real Clear Politics (opens in new tab), Republicans currently have about a three-point advantage on the generic ballot, a rough proxy for which party voters want to control Congress, after trailing Democrats for much of September. What Your 2022 Midterm Elections Vote Could Mean for Taxes Second, President Biden remains unpopular, with an average approval rating of around 43%. That's better than it was this summer, when only 37% of voters, on average, thought Biden was doing a good job, but not enough to prevent big Democratic losses at the ballot box. Moreover, Biden's approval rating has started to drift lower again, with high inflation likely to persist for 2022. What does this mean in terms of how many seats Republicans will win? In the House, expect a net GOP gain of at least 20 seats, slightly greater than our September estimate (15), but slightly below our initial spring forecast (25). "At least" accounts for the fact that Republicans could build on their advantage in the final days and flip even more seats.
One factor that hasn't changed, despite the various twists and turns: Voter turnout in the midterms is expected to reach record highs, which could upset our expectations, rooted in previous, low-turnout midterms. For example, younger voters showing up in greater-than-usual numbers could give Democrats a boost, though older GOP-friendly voters are also fired up. Matthew HousiauxReporter, The Kiplinger LetterHousiaux covers the White House and state and local government for The Kiplinger Letter. Before joining Kiplinger in June 2016, he lived in Sioux Falls, SD, where he was the forum editor of Augustana University's student newspaper, the Mirror. He also contributed stories to the Borgen Project, a Seattle-based nonprofit focused on raising awareness of global poverty. He earned a B.A. in history and journalism from Augustana University. Latest Worried About Inflation? You Can Help Protect Yourself From Its Impact Delaying major purchases can help shield present you, and future you could benefit from continuing to invest and contribute to your retirement plans. By Kelly LaVigne, J.D. • Published 13 November 22 What Is Lifetime Income Insurance Worth? A Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) could be just what you need when markets are down and you're worried about future income. By David Blanchett, PhD, CFA, CFP® • Published 12 November 22 kiplinger About Us (opens in new tab) Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab) Privacy Policy (opens in new tab) Cookie Policy (opens in new tab) Kiplinger is part of Future plc, an international media group and leading digital publisher. Visit our corporate site.
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Who Will Win the Midterm Elections This November
The race for control of the Senate remains tight, but Republicans appear likely to take back control of both chambers of Congress. (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) (opens in new tab) Newsletter sign up Newsletter (Image credit: Getty Images) By Matthew Housiaux, Sean Lengell published 2 November 2022 With the midterms fast approaching, Republicans are poised to gain enough seats to take back both the House and Senate and serve as a check on the Biden administration.How to account for the recent GOP surge? First, it was supposed to be a Republican year. The president's party almost always takes a beating during the midterms. So, it should be no surprise that political conditions shifted back in favor of the GOP, following a temporary Democratic upswing earlier this fall.
According to Real Clear Politics (opens in new tab), Republicans currently have about a three-point advantage on the generic ballot, a rough proxy for which party voters want to control Congress, after trailing Democrats for much of September. What Your 2022 Midterm Elections Vote Could Mean for Taxes Second, President Biden remains unpopular, with an average approval rating of around 43%. That's better than it was this summer, when only 37% of voters, on average, thought Biden was doing a good job, but not enough to prevent big Democratic losses at the ballot box. Moreover, Biden's approval rating has started to drift lower again, with high inflation likely to persist for 2022. What does this mean in terms of how many seats Republicans will win? In the House, expect a net GOP gain of at least 20 seats, slightly greater than our September estimate (15), but slightly below our initial spring forecast (25). "At least" accounts for the fact that Republicans could build on their advantage in the final days and flip even more seats.
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Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's expert advice on investing, taxes, retirement, personal finance and more - straight to your e-mail. Profit and prosper with the best of Kiplinger's expert advice - straight to your e-mail. Sign up Remember, Republicans need to gain only five seats to retake the House. In the Senate, the GOP needs to flip one seat without losing any of theirs. We think they will, but it will be close. The three Democratic-held seats most at risk: Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, where the Republican candidate either leads or is within the margin of error.2022 voter turnout remains a wildcard
Democrats at one point were heavily favored to flip Republican-held Pennsylvania, but health problems have dogged Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and helped his GOP opponent, Mehmet Oz, close the gap. Wisconsin, another seat that Democrats hoped to flip, has also trended toward Republicans in recent weeks.One factor that hasn't changed, despite the various twists and turns: Voter turnout in the midterms is expected to reach record highs, which could upset our expectations, rooted in previous, low-turnout midterms. For example, younger voters showing up in greater-than-usual numbers could give Democrats a boost, though older GOP-friendly voters are also fired up. Matthew HousiauxReporter, The Kiplinger LetterHousiaux covers the White House and state and local government for The Kiplinger Letter. Before joining Kiplinger in June 2016, he lived in Sioux Falls, SD, where he was the forum editor of Augustana University's student newspaper, the Mirror. He also contributed stories to the Borgen Project, a Seattle-based nonprofit focused on raising awareness of global poverty. He earned a B.A. in history and journalism from Augustana University. Latest Worried About Inflation? You Can Help Protect Yourself From Its Impact Delaying major purchases can help shield present you, and future you could benefit from continuing to invest and contribute to your retirement plans. By Kelly LaVigne, J.D. • Published 13 November 22 What Is Lifetime Income Insurance Worth? A Guaranteed Lifetime Withdrawal Benefit (GLWB) could be just what you need when markets are down and you're worried about future income. By David Blanchett, PhD, CFA, CFP® • Published 12 November 22 kiplinger About Us (opens in new tab) Terms and Conditions (opens in new tab) Privacy Policy (opens in new tab) Cookie Policy (opens in new tab) Kiplinger is part of Future plc, an international media group and leading digital publisher. Visit our corporate site.
© Future US, Inc. Full 7th Floor, 130 West 42nd Street, New York, NY 10036.