Intelligent Hockey Three Unders to Consider in The Futures Market - Abbeyfeale Golf Club Abbeyfeale Intelligent Hockey Three Unders to Consider in The Futures Market Facebook Twitter WhatsApp Telegram For most of my life, sports philistines have characterized hockey as too low scoring. It was always an oversimplification, but now it’s also objectively wrong. Scoring in the NHL has increased and last season the goals came fast and furious. A convergence of factors is propelling the offensive surge, and more goals produce a better product for the fans. But when I look at player futures for goals and points, I feel most confident playing the unders. For me, the sweet spot is finding a number that would be a challenge for a player to hit even if he plays in all 82 games, and if the player suffers an injury that forces him to miss time, this likely clinches the bet. I found three bets that meet these criteria. Nikita Kucherov Under 97.5 points Confusion. Frustration. Anger. Self-loathing. These were just a sample of the emotions I felt when I bet the Tampa Bay Lightning during the regular season last year. It is an understatement to say it proved difficult forecasting whether the entire team would play like it took a large dose of melatonin before puck drop. But logically, one could see the justification. The Lightning won consecutive Stanley Cups and absorbed a lot of wear and tear. Through that prism, the regular season was a very long scrimmage. And many nights, their apathetic play wasn’t subtle. Now, they are coming off a third consecutive Stanley Cup final appearance. For the core, I suspect the regular season will be a slog that they will treat with the same enthusiasm as an adolescent treats a chore. Which makes taking the under for Nikita Kucherov’s points totally tantalizing. Admittedly, fading Kucherov is somewhat terrifying. Only Connor McDavid had a better points per game last season. Kucherov is an elite playmaker with a rocket for a shot. Few players can submit a lackluster effort and still pick up multiple points, but Kucherov possesses this rare skill. Still, this could be a more trying season for Kucherov in a few ways. First, he’ll be missing Ondrej Palat, who will be suiting up for the New Jersey Devils this year. Palat is one of the game’s best at impacting play without dominating possession. Kucherov and Palat played 314:52 at 5-on-5 together, but when Kucherov played away from Palat, his expected goals and high-danger chances dropped. For Palat, the opposite was true; his numbers improved away from Kucherov in the advanced stats. Coach Jon Cooper is a master at tinkering with his lines to find the right combination, but it could be a process. The biggest reason to be doubtful about Kucherov is his health issues for the last two seasons. The Lightning gamed the system and held Kucherov out the entire regular season in 2020-21, and last year, Kucherov only mustered 47 games. During the Lightning’s Cup run, he has fought through different ailments. If he doesn’t miss a single game, Kucherov needs to post a point per game of right around 1.2 to get to 98 points, which is a taller task than it seems. Of players who played 80 or more games last season, only nine players surpassed that rate. The Lightning will make the playoffs and should be taken seriously in terms of vying for another Cup. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is a bulwark against serious slippage. But Kucherov’s health issues and the obvious indifference of the team towards the regular season has me loving the under. Pick: Under 97.5 points for Nikita Kucherov at -114 Chris Kreider Under 38.5 goals Beware the outlier. Last season, Chris Kreider posted a career high in goals, soaring past his previous best by 24. To achieve that, Kreider scored goals at a rapturous 0.64 clip, neck and neck with Alex Ovechkin. To be clear, this was uncharted territory for Kreider. Prior to last season, Kreider’s top goals per game was 0.4. To put that into context, Kreider’s goal-scoring clip last year was more productive than his best season at Boston College. Looking at the numbers, one wonders if the bill is coming due – ie, regression. Kreider finished the season with a 20.2 shooting percentage and notched 26 power-play goals. His power-play goals were first in the league and ten ahead of Auston Matthews, who was tied for third place. Kreider’s shooting percentage placed him fifth in the league among players with 70 or more games, and of those, only Brock Nelson recorded more than 120 shots. While Kreider was an unstoppable menace on the power play, his 5-on-5 numbers shouldn’t be dismissed. He was the best Rangers player by a large degree in individual expected goals and higher-danger chances created. He can be a one-man rush. In front of the net, he is the best in the NHL at deflections, shrugging off helpless defenders and hoovering up shots that come his way. But even if Kreider plays all 82 games, for him to post 39 goals and reach the over, he would have to finish with a goals per game pace he had never hit until last season. Furthermore, during the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, he missed seven and six games respectively. Last season was Kreider’s healthiest of his career. At the age of 31, Kreider should be at the end of his scoring prime, according to history. The only players Kreider’s age or older who scored 35 or more goals last season were Ovechkin, Matt Duchene, and Steven Stamkos. Two of those players are the top snipers of the 21stst century, and the other (Duchene) is headed for a big regression this season. I think Kreider falls in the latter category. Pick: Under 38.5 goals for Chris Kreider at -114 Sidney Crosby Under 85.5 points Doubting a hockey legend requires a strain of cynicism that regrettably comes a little too naturally to this scribe. From the outset, Sidney Crosby was dubbed a generational talent who would become the face of the NHL. Astonishingly, he has lived up to the hype. Even as his career winds down at the age of 35, Crosby manages to impact the game with his intelligence and incredible anticipation. And yet, when looking at his production potential for this season, history should be instructive. Since the 2010-11 season, only one hockey player at the age of 35 has played over 50 games and scored at a pace of over a point per game: Martin St. Louis in 2010-11. Since the 2010-11 season, and including players who played 50 or more games, only two players above 35 years of age have recorded points at the pace Crosby would need to achieve 86 or more points in 82 games: Ovechkin last season and Teemu Selanne at the age of 40 in 2010-11. Overlaying my concerns about Crosby’s age is my uncertainty about the Penguins as a team. Crosby’s stats don’t signal a troubling decline, and Jake Guentzel is a comically perfect complement to Crosby. Behind the bench, Mike Sullivan is an amazing coach. But at some point, the Penguins’ veteran-laden squad has to stumble, right? Although it’s hard to find signs of atrophy in the regular season, the Penguins haven’t made it out of the opening playoff round since 2017-18. Will the Penguins of the Crosby and Evgeni Malkin era go down with a crash or the hiss of a gradually deflating tire? Crosby’s health could push him under. The captain has missed a combined 42 games over the last three seasons. Crosby was also dinged up by Jacob Trouba in the last postseason. Crosby is not Ovechkin. The Great Eight can score into eternity because he has a laser for a shot, and like an alien, his shot doesn’t seem to lose velocity with age. But Crosby has a different métier. He doesn’t have a dominant skill that overpowers. His cerebral style requires him to do the small things better than everyone else and win on the fringes. Whether that advantage will deteriorate as Crosby hits his mid-30’s is worth considering. Regardless, I think if he plays 82 games, it is unlikely he will notch more than 86 points, and I suspect he will miss time and finish well under 80 points. Pick: Under 85.5 points for Sidney Crosby at -114 Related Facebook Twitter WhatsApp Telegram Leave a Reply Cancel reply Your email address will not be published. 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